Turns out I'm only authorized for covered calls on E*Trade, not all options, so I'd have to close out a long position before I could short AOL.
http://www.beartracker.com/shortsell2.html
Intresting link, thanks. It put words to some things I'd been thinking about, especially waiting for a "triggering event" and understanding the "story" that people going long believe in.
(Thinking out loud here...) I guess I see two stories, one short-term and one long-term. Short-term, people are worried about Asia, and they see Internet stocks as a good place to put their money, since most have little or no Asian exposure. Long-term, people believe in the future of the Internet, and they see AOL as a premier Internet brand-name, with great market share, etc.
So the triggering events needed to undo those two stories are signs of strength in Asia, and either a drop in market share (or revenue), or a growing realization that AOL isn't in fact an Internet stock. With people talking about a potential collapse of the Japanese economy, I don't see fears subsiding about Asia any time soon. Nor do I think people will see through AOL's marketing in the next while and come to the realization that AOL is a kludge. So the only events in the near future that could derail this stock is a bad EPS surprise, or a subscribers backlash after the $2 rise. The former could come in late April when earnings are announced. The latter may not be made public for months.
Thanks again for the links.
rhet0ric |
