To Bohdan and All:
Found this on my companies email. Well it doesn't pertain to the halt, it does give us a bit of info on what is going on in Angola.
Date of Information: This item uploaded to the Corporate Security Alerts Bulletin Board 04/03/97, 9:30am CST.
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ANGOLA-New Date for Unity Government
Angolan officials and the rebel movement, National Unity for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), on 31 March 1997 agreed to form their long-delayed government of national unity on 11 April. According to some knowledgeable observers, pressure from the international community may finally force UNITA to accept the deadline and join the country's first peace-time government. However, an assassination attempt against UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi, which extremists loyal to the Popular Liberation Movement of Angola (MPLA) government have threatened, could put the fragile peace process in danger of breaking down altogether.
COMMENT
Most of UNITA's 70 parliamentary deputies have arrived in Luanda, the capital, from UNITA strongholds in the highlands of central Angola. The UNITA politicians are living in a protected housing complex in the city. It is unclear where Savimbi would live if he agrees to attend the swearing-in of the new government. An assassination attempt could come from MPLA extremists, some of whom have openly expressed a wish to kill Savimbi because of his refusal to accept 1992 election results and the subsequent renewal of war. This could put the fragile peace process in danger of breaking down altogether.
In a separate activity, United Nations (UN) peacekeepers officially completed their mandate on 28 February, but the UN will take around six months to finalize a phased withdrawal from the country.
Officials announced in mid-March that a small observer force will remain after the withdrawal. The 7,000 troops of the UN Verification and Monitoring Force (UNAVEM) will leave at a rate of 1,000 soldiers a month. Officials said that the withdrawal plan will be flexible. A UNAVEM presence will be maintained in more sensitive areas until the final stages of the withdrawal, and a small force of UN observers will remain afterwards to monitor UNITA military demobilization.
The UN's departure in Angola will likely further narrow employment prospects and contribute considerably to other social and economic dislocations. UN-sponsored and affiliated services, trade, and commerce industries will be significantly curtailed or eliminated, creating gaps in welfare and employment opportunities, especially in Luanda. Consequently, despite the end to the civil war, the risks, instead, may be related to rising crime in this already-challenging security environment. The new unity government may find that containing economic and social upheaval will take precedence over political differences in the post-UN period.
While few observers anticipate any reasonable likelihood of Angola returning to civil war once the UN leaves, crime may escalate throughout the country and in the capital. In countries such as Somalia and Mozambique, the UN's withdrawal was a major factor in fueling crime rates. In both cases, the loss of UN money was a direct contributor to subsequent social problems. Currently, thousands of newly-demobilized soldiers in Angola are seeking employment in an already constrained social and economic environment. Banditry by these former soldiers occurs with troubling regularity in Angola's rural areas, and criminal violence may increase further in Luanda where other more lucrative and numerous targets exist. Certainly, the UN's phased withdrawal, rather than immediate evacuation, will help to soften the economic impact, but the effect will still be considerable.
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