Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 160.55

-4.8%

Dec 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9348)	1/20/2001 1:52:40 PM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (5) of 10921

<Or perhaps we haven't learned much from our very recent lesson in shortsightedness. < I am really unsure what your point is. Are you saying that the economy is so predictable that there is no risk things will not repeat as they have the last ten years? I'm also not sure what you're talking about when you refer to what others on the thread are saying. I follow this thread closely and I haven't seen anybody saying "this disaster will occur or that collapse will happen", what I've seen(including my posts) are folks saying that there are unusual risks that make predicting the semi-cycle much more difficult. I'll give you one anecdote, for what its worth: During the heyday of the Japanese boom in the 80's I worked for a large Japanese tech company. I probably spent about 20% of my life in Japan for 5 years or so attending various meetings, design reviews,etc. I cannot tell you how arrogantly blinded most Japanese businessmen were to the "bubble" phenomena. When we talked about it they had the utmost, incredible confidence that Japan was so strong economically and financially that any downturn would be short and would end up strengthening the overall Japanese economy and competitive position. Discussions about the underlying economic factors that might change the 20 YEAR history of boom were dismissed out of hand. I believe psychologists call this phenomena "cognitive dissonance", that is ignoring information that conflicts with core beliefs. I believe that there are always risks. Investors and business people have to assess what risks are and their probability of occurring is. They have to measure that against the opportunity for reward. If I read your posts correctly you are saying there is no risk. If I read other folks posts correctly they are trying to understand what the risks and probabilities are and weigh them against the opportunities.

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