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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 160.55-4.8%Dec 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: WTSherman who wrote (9351)1/20/2001 2:28:23 PM
From: scott_jiminez   of 10921
 
I am really unsure what your point is.

I suggest you read though this thread starting from the beginning of last year. I've tried to learn from my experience.

I'm aware that the Nikkei is trading at 1/3 its level of 1989. I'm aware of the risks of the concept of predictability. I'm aware of the misapplication of cognitive dissonance (I was a psych major). Most of all, I'm aware of hubris (my favorite word in the whole wide world) as the signature concept that summarizes the rest of your post.

Japan's entire economy was a bubble. It burst. We had an internet/technology bubble and it imploded. The NAZ is down ~50%; the Dow is down exactly 8.4% from its all time high. The US economy has slowed but is still intact. There are countless arguments in favor of resiliency...and for a quick and sustained recovery. I chose to believe these. Others see the gloom and doom all around them and believe it's conclusive handwriting.

At the beginning of December, the economic news was poor.
At the beginning of December, the equipment sector bottomed.
Since the beginning of December, the economic news has become progressively worse.
Since the beginning of December, the equipment sector has rallied 50-70%.

This makes perfect sense to me because I'm trying to prudently invoke the experience of the last 12 months.

Experience and predictability are two very different perspectives.
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