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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 302.00

+2.6%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (93515)	12/19/2024 8:20:41 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) of 95385

MU said next Q sales would drop about $1 billion from the just reported Q, and EPS would drop to about $1.45 from $1.78 just reported. Then sales would pick up again. This doesn't seem to bad to me. I guess it's hard to have confidence in the "sales will pick up again in two quarters" story, but SIMO said the same thing (sales will pick up from April 2025 on), and it doesn't seem out of the question. I'm wondering two things - in general, what multiple does MU deserve? If $1.45 EPS is a trough, it's pretty dam high! And also, is the current Q (ends Feb 2025) a "cyclical trough", or is it just a blip on the way (up or down) to wherever MU and memory are heading over the next 1-3 years? NAND is the primary culprit in the weakness in the current Q. Either it's a blip and things will pick up from the May Q on, or in the May Q DRAM and HBM and data center experience a slowdown, and the entire memory market goes to hell. I don't think anyone expects data center / AI sales to go to hell soon, but who knows? Growth has been so strong for the past few years that a period of inventory digestion is not out of the question.

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