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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: quehubo who wrote (92742)	4/14/2003 10:05:09 PM
From: Dayuhan	of 281500

A revolt or instability in Iran or Saudia Arabia is inevitable, we may have just accelerated the process a little by cleaning out the festering sore of Iraq in the region. In Iran I think you have a real chance at a revolt with a progressive outcome: they’ve been through a dictator and an Islamic republic, and they may be ready for a middle way. Saudi Arabia is a somewhat grimmer case. As bad as the existing government is, there seems very little chance that a revolt would install a better one. The only organized political force outside the royal family is radical Islam, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which a revolt would lead to anything but an Islamist government. The military might be able to emerge on top, with our support, but I don’t think they could hold it, and the idea of us supporting a military government fighting an Islamist insurrection in Saudi Arabia is not a terribly attractive thing. Saudi Arabia’s percentage of the world’s easily accessible oil supply gives that nation as much clout and as much potential to do damage as WMD would, without providing any legitimate cause for direct action. While the existing Saudi government has not been very effective at controlling terrorism, it has been extremely cooperative in keeping oil prices in a range that works for both producers and consumers. An Islamist government in Riyadh would have effective control over the world price of oil, and that would not be a good thing. I have a feeling that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will prove to be much more difficult problems than Iraq was. I agree, future instability in producer nations will lead to increased risk premiums. The unfortunate geography of the war on terror makes increased oil risk premiums almost inevitable. That doesn’t make the war on terror any less necessary, it just means that we have to factor the risk premium on oil into the cost of fighting it.

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