the fourth rail: Electiontime in Palestine
billroggio.com
The upcoming elections in the Palestinian territories make for some interesting theater. The United States and Europe are desperate for a moderate Palestinian leader that can negotiate a settlement to the "Middle East Crisis", and place their hopes in a vessel named "Mahmoud Abbas" (AKA Abu Mazen). The Palestinians long for continued international support, aid and legitimacy, and conduct elections to assuage their benefactors. The Israelis, used to political machinations from Palestinian moderates, look on skeptically as they search for a negotiating partner.
The latest plan for peace between the Israelis and Palestinians was laid out in the now defunct Middle East Road Map. This highly optimistic plan broke down on the initial calls for the Palestinians to prevent terror attacks against Israel and destroy the terrorist infrastructure.
At the outset of Phase I:
Palestinian leadership issues unequivocal statement reiterating Israel’s right to exist in peace and security and calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire to end armed activity and all acts of violence against Israelis anywhere. All official Palestinian institutions end incitement against Israel.
Security
• Palestinians declare an unequivocal end to violence and terrorism and undertake visible efforts on the ground to arrest, disrupt, and restrain individuals and groups conducting and planning violent attacks on Israelis anywhere.
• Rebuilt and refocused Palestinian Authority security apparatus begins sustained, targeted, and effective operations aimed at confronting all those engaged in terror and dismantlement of terrorist capabilities and infrastructure. This includes commencing confiscation of illegal weapons and consolidation of security authority, free of association with terror and corruption.
Under the leadership of Yasser Arafat, the Palestinians have never been able to get beyond the first sentences of the requirements of the Road Map. Terror has not been renounced, halted, nor uprooted, as the roots of terrorism are spread wide and deep in the Palestinian soil.
Mahmoud Abbas, the current Prime Minister and favored candidate in the Palestinian elections, is a mixed bag, and perhaps is as close to an electable moderate as you get in the territories. On one hand, Abbas has condemned mortar attacks on Israeli settlements, states the armed Intifada should end as it has failed and Palestinians should seek a political solution. On the other hand, Abbas is a holocaust denier and advocates for the "Right of Return" for Palestinians into Israel proper. He campaigns with Zakaria Zubeidi, a wanted terrorists and local leader of the newly minted Yasser Arafat Martyrs Brigades (of former Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades fame), refers to Israel as a “Zionist entity”, and states that Palestinian terrorists are "freedom fighters" who should be protected and will not be hunted down by Palestinian security forces.
“When we demand security, we demand it for all our citizens, including our wanted brothers who also deserve a life of security and safety … They are freedom fighters … and should live a dignified and safe life…Palestinians taking up arms against each other will not happen."
Mahmoud Abbas is a member of good standing in the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), the umbrella group under which al-Fatah serves. Abbas is Chairman and Secretary General of the PLO. The PLO's Foreign Minister, Farouq Qaddoumi, recently welcomed the influx of aid and support of Iranian and Syrian backed Hezbollah. He sees no political solution or an end to terrorism against Israel, only politically necessitated pauses designed to improve their position (the correct term for this is hudna).
"There is no political settlement. There is the Road Map which is devoid of any meaning…It is wrong to use the term militarization of the intifadah. Intifadah means armed resistance against the occupation...The popular war is the war of the masses, the war of convictions, the war of morale. It is not a war of confrontation. We fight for one hour and incite the masses for 23 hours. We fight when we find fighting to be useful and stop fighting when it is not useful. We might stop for a month and then resume the resistance…armed struggle is a basic requirement if there is no political settlement."
Mahmoud Abbas has not denounced these statements. Nor will he. Palestinian politicians are forced to "play to their base", and in this case it is terrorist groups that wield the power. Abbas' rhetoric is not subtle; he does not split hairs on trivial items such as health care and social security. The hatred of the Jews and the Zionist state of Israel is front and center in Palestinian politics, and Abbas' statements are merely a reflection of this. He could not get elected without expressing his approval for terrorist groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Yasser Arafat Martyrs, the PLO and others. He would not even survive the campaign trail.
It is little wonder Mahmoud Abbas is considered a moderate in Palestinian politics. In a environment where convicted killer Marwan Barghouti was the people’s favorite (see summary of indictment), prisoners are encouraged to vote, children are encouraged to become killers and the funeral of beloved leader Yasser Arafat turns into a shooting match, a man of Abbas’ relatively dovish positions are cherished by the West.
Mahmoud Abbas will easily win the Palestinian Election; he is far outdistancing his closest rival in the polls. The question will be what can he do after his victory? Will he have the courage to adhere to the principles of the Road Map and dismantle the terrorist organizations so prevalent in Palestinian society? Will he be able to gain control of Palestinian security services? Is his campaign rhetoric on the Right of Return, “freedom fighters” and the return to the 1967 borders empty promises, or will he hold fast to these demands?
Maintaining the delicate balance of satisfying the demands of the myriad of Palestinian terrorists and the demands of Israel, Europe and America for a political solution to the conflict will be a difficult task. Abbas is considered an "apostate" by Osama bin Laden, and Palestinian terrorists will not accept any meaningful concessions to Israel, as their ultimate goal is the destruction of the Israeli state. It wouldn’t take much for the real power brokers, Palestinian terrorists, to turn on him. The Israelis have grown tired of the double games played by Palestinian politicians, and have showing the political will to ignore the demands of peace at any cost from the international community. The construction of the security fence and continued targeting of terrorist leaders inside the territories and beyond demonstrates this.
Mahmoud Abbas will get elected to the most thankless political position in the world. Expected to please two diametrically opposed electorates - Palestinian nationalists and terrorists, and the Israeli state - he will please neither, and make enemies of both.
Posted by Bill Roggio on January 4, 2005 08:07 AM to the fourth rail |
