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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Paul Kern who wrote (93653)	4/18/2008 7:39:03 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	of 110194

Financial CEOs Gloomy, but Confident in Fed CEOs in the financial services industry think the economy is in the tank but the Fed is going a good job dealing with it. growth_cs_20080418122108.jpg Respondents to a survey released today by the Financial Services Forum, a group of 20 CEOs of financial services companies doing business in the U.S., placed the chance of recession at 88%. Three put the chance at 100% (they’re in the finance industry, after all). On a one to five scale — five is great; one is wretched — the forum gave the Fed a 3.93 for how it has handled all the financial malaise and the Bear Stearns meltdown. The CEOs expect things to get worse. The credit crunch hasn’t yet reached the halfway point, according to respondents, and while growth should resume by the end of the year, the prediction is for GDP to grow less than one percent in 2008. Today’s high prices are not expected to fall a whole lot (nor rise a much either). Economic growth could be threatened by the credit crisis and the housing downturn, respondents said (no surprises there). But they were also concerned about the decline of the dollar and the growing sense of protectionism. And where will that growth come from? The U.S. won’t be much help. While China and India will continue to be among the biggest contributors to growth, the U.S. fell to the number nine ranking, from three when the survey was last released in October. –Conor Dougherty

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