My dear Zeev: in mid-September you made the following post Message 14382148 which included the rosy forecast 'I think that for the next few months, the semi-equip sector is going to have a very nice move (many will have a 50% move from yesterday's lows), and the chip themselves might do even better. .. I think that VECO has a very good chance of making such a new high, but not many others.'
Within three weeks VECO was down by 50% and the there wasn't the faintest hint of '...the semi-equip sector is going to have a very nice move.' In fact, the precise opposite was the case. Note, that buying during that extremely brief bottom in mid-September, as you implied, without selling a week or two later, would have left you today (after the current rally) still under water in the vast majority of cases (including VECO). But since you have this penchant for claiming both sides of a story in every post you make, you always have an 'out'. Whereas those who go out on the preverbal limb in defining a definitive position...you ridicule! But that’s O.K., Everyone is reserved the right to be wrong, change their mind, and change their mind often (g).
I see nothing in your record, other than arrogance, to suggest your forecast prowess surpasses my abilities nor anyone else on this thread. But then again arrogance is not in short supply around here either (g).
So please, do express you opinion, it is interesting and enlightening, but spare us the "lectures" about the participants on this thread being less accurate than yourself. Also, please spare us lectures about what bear markets are and are not, or what 'typical' recoveries are like. Lectures about 'critical' support levels, 'topping', 'double tops' blah blah blah are pedantic gobblegoop fathoms worse than any lecture I could possible conceive. My posts have been expressions of opinions stated as such; in fact, I avoid the use of such presumptuous phrases as 'I expect', etc. If you perceive my views as lectures to be spared the thread, fine. But when, in the same breath, you proceed with a protracted lecture of your own expectations, the degree of the hypocrisy is just a bit much.
We all enjoy reading your opinions and comments and we welcome your idiosyncratic stance. We all can read that you perceive the ‘certification’ of this rally in a certain manner that, as is true of all your other claims, may pan out if very specific scenarios play out. To paraphrase your syntax: those that practice growth of capital, may very well use the next 10 days or so continue to invest in the sector...just as they’ve done over the past 5 weeks. I fully believe that come the ides of March, much higher prices than today's prices will prevail...and this will still not be the end of the rally. I have no idea if the SOX will make a new low under 535, but most equipment stocks have very likely already put in their lows for the cycle,
As I discussed in early December, and as confirmed thus far by Don Wennerstrom, ‘my analysis’ indicates we put in a cyclical bottom in late November and we can look forward to a substantial rally throughout 2001. And as a reminder, don’t forget to sell in the spring of 2002. That's what 'I expect', that's what 'I fully believe'...your 'certification' notwithstanding. |
