Tony and thread,
Ralph Acampora's Technical Outlook (issued 12/09/99).
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Technical Outlook
brought to you by Ralph Acampora.
Chief Technical Analyst of Prudential Securities
December 9, 1999, 11:16 A.M. EST
(Prices as of close on 12/08/99
U.S. Stock Market Outlook)
Near-Term
The jobless claims report came out before today?s opening; it showed an increase of 1,000 jobs for the period. he S&P futures immediately responded by bounding higher, indicating that the market should commence the trading day on a very positive note.
How else can we best describe or define to word ?volatility?? We suppose that the wild swings in the Dow and the NASDAQ Composite alone can help define volatility?the breadth numbers do not show anything but downward bias in stock prices. Which do you believe in? We say, forget the conflict between these technical indicators and concentrate on your individual stocks. The trend is your friend---we are not lacking in good-looking stock chart patterns. So stay with the chart of your individual stock and place less emphasis on all those conflicting technical market indicators.
Sector Standings
Attractive stocks that are just breaking out to the upside:
Home Depot Inc. (HD-83 3/16, is rated ?HOLD? by Prudential Securities Research)
Infinity Broadcasting Corp. (INF-40 7/8, is not rated by Prudential Securities Research)
Parker-Hannifin Corp. (PH-50, is not rated by Prudential Securities Research)
Symbol Technologies Inc. (SBL-52 5/8, is not rated by Prudential Securities Research)
Sprint Corp. (PCS-99 1/2, is rated ?HOLD? by Prudential Securities Research)
Viacom Inc. (VIAB-55 1/4, is rated ?ACCUMULATE? by Prudential Securities Research)
Intermediate Term
STOCKS, STOCKS, STOCKS?Use the market?s volatility to your advantage by selecting attractive individual stocks. Many cross currents exist within the indicator side of the ledger. Don?t be forced out of this bull market simply because a technical indicator is negative. Use other inputs like sector analysis and comparative relative strength data?these are most helpful in this bull phase.
Long-Term
The year 2000 is an election year?historically it is a positive year. The year 2001 will be the first year of a new President in office. Historically, Wall Street gives the new President a honeymoon. Therefore, if one has a 12 to 18 month horizon, it is reasonable to expect the market to be higher, much higher over the longer term than it is today.
Here are the technical levels that we believe, if broken, will indicate further upside or downside momentum:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Primary Support 10,842.7
Secondary Support 9,976
Primary Resistance 11,366
Standard and Poors 500
Primary Support 1346.49
Secondary Support 1233.66
Primary Resistance 1425.31
Nasdaq Composite
Primary Support 2923.32
Secondary Support 2688.18
Primary Resistance None
Russell 2000
Primary Support 442.49
Secondary Support 431.37
Primary Resistance None
Ibexx
PS: As always, please read at your own risk.
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