| I've read a number of DS's posts, and other similar stuff, in an attempt to understand the underlying technology, and get in front of the trend. But I know my limitations. I am not competent to evaluate the technology. I am certainly not competent to try and pick the winning technology. In fact, looking back over the last few years, I can cite examples all day, of experts, people who live and breathe tech 24/7, who have made colossal mistakes, betting on the wrong technology. Mistakes that have cost them and their companies billions, and in some cases, tens of billions, of dollars. So, I'm skeptical that even people much more competent than me, who spend far more time following the technology than I am willing to, are able to pick winning technologies in advance. So, I will not invest in a company, when your type of certainty is in the stock. Because that degree of certainty so, so often comes to grief. If your scenario happens, great, I'm on board. But, if it doesn't happen, I've gotten in at a low enough cost (I think and hope), that I'll still have a decent investment. We'll see. Beware of Great Ideas, transforming technologies, and Amazing Concepts. Mostly, they aren't. |
