If you want the science in detail: check out patents, clinical studies, approvals. Then look at corporate structure: partners, and divisions - with an eye for the potential cash flow from manufacturing, royalties etc. All of this information has
been talked about on Cyto thread; or you can get info from IBM patent site, Pubmed site, or even some general corporate structure stuff
from their home site. After my own due diligence, having talked to a number of doctors in the U.S. and in Canada (as well as my wife who is a doctor) - I have concluded that Cytogen is in a good position to produce earnings over the next 2 years. No guarantee though. Just very good odds.
Is that enough? No - I need one more thing before I invest in this type of situation. I like to buy stocks that are beaten down, and
have many frustrated investors, who although they can talk about
why Cytogen should be performing, do not seem to realize that they
exhibit the very reason why the market has to work its way through
all of their positions. Sort of ironic - they are producing the
very base they keep looking for. Who knows how much margin, loss selling etc. has to take place, but it is there. However, when this
stock took away their money at much higher prices it was in my opinion way over priced. I mean it does sound egotistical but just look at
the chart of this stock and match it up with the actual news, time frames for approvals, and potential cash flow etc. Way ahead of
itself.
The stock itself exhibits the characteristics you would expect
given its past.
Now that the company is in a position to prosper, what is the potential?
Good - IMO -because when we get the next wave of biotech
investment the timing I believe will match Cytogen's real coming
of age. This is a subjective analysis - but with a few years of experience, it just may have validity. We shall see.
Time frame - next two years.
Point - Biotech is not going away - does anybody think Cytogen is about to fail? Finish the correction here, get a sector rotation
out of all the overpriced stocks and Cytogen might look very good.
The kicker: IF Cytogen comes up with a major indication - that
produces even a mini blockbuster, or its test sites start to
generate big dollars; then Cytogen rockets. Look at the timing here.
Big companies will be looking for aquisitions with new products which
produce cash flow - heading into 1999-2000. How long is the
Cytogen ramp up - looks like a potential good fit to me.
Anyway - that is in general why I am buying Cytogen - but as I
keep saying - I am not missing the fact that the market is very nervous, and I am very liquid in my allocations. I like very few
stocks in here, and if the market crashes Cytogen comes down too.
I will say that I believe that when (if) Cytogen really gets rolling
it will be a sharp and steep rise - timing will be very difficult.
IMO.
Eric Freeman
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