Market Snapshot
| Dow | 41487.88 | +674.62 | (1.65%) | | Nasdaq | 17754.09 | +451.07 | (2.61%) | | SP 500 | 5638.94 | +117.42 | (2.13%) | | 10-yr Note | -4/32 | 4.316 |
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| | NYSE | Adv 2199 | Dec 449 | Vol 1.1 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 3233 | Dec 1137 | Vol 7.1 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Technology, Discretionary, Industrials, Energy, Financials, Materials, Communication Services |
| | Weak: -- |
Moving the Market
-- Rebound in mega caps
-- Buy-the-dip mentality in a short-term oversold market
-- Diminishing chances of a government shutdown citing as a catalyst for buying after Senator Chuck Schumer said he would vote to keep the govt. funded
-- Speculation of easing trade tensions between US and Canada following reports of a productive meeting between Ontario Premier Ford and Sec. of Commerce Lutnick
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Closing Summary
14-Mar-25 16:30 ET
Dow +674.62 at 41487.88, Nasdaq +451.07 at 17754.09, S&P +117.42 at 5638.94
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market experienced a robust rally, rebounding from recent declines. The S&P 500 surged 2.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 674 points (1.7%), and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.6%.
The favorable price action derived largely from a buy-the-dip mentality after solid losses of late. Catalysts that drew in buying interest included:
- Diminishing chances of a government shutdown citing as a catalyst for buying after Senator Chuck Schumer said he would vote to keep the government funded
- Easing trade tensions between the US and Canada following reports of a productive meeting between Ontario Premier Ford and Secretary of Commerce Lutnick
- Speculation that China will soon provide more policy stimulus to boost domestic consumption
- The S&P 500 closing in correction territory yesterday (i.e. 10% decline from its all-time high on February 19)
Gains in the mega cap space provided integral support to index performance. NVIDIA (NVDA 121.67, +6.09, +5.3%) and Tesla (TSLA 249.98, +9.30, +3.9%) were big standouts in the space.
Even Ulta Beauty (ULTA 357.48, +43.01, +13.7%) and DocuSign (DOCU 85.76, +11.06, +14.8%), which reported disappointing guidance traded sharply higher in today's broad advance. ULTA talked about consumer uncertainty and issued disappointing full-year guidance and DOCU issued Q1 and full-year revenue guidance below consensus estimates.
The market largely overlooked a soft economic report this morning. The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment survey for March dropped to 57.9 (Briefing.com consensus 65.6) from the final reading of 64.7 for February, marking the third straight drop in sentiment. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 79.4.
There was still some uneasiness in play, though, as gold prices prices settled above $3,001.00/oz, reflecting ongoing safe-haven trading.
Elsewhere, the 10-yr yield settled three basis points higher at 4.31% and the 2-yr yield settled seven basis points higher at 4.02%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.5% YTD
- S&P 500: -4.1% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -6.2% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -8.1%
- Russell 2000: -8.3% YTD
Reviewing today's economic data:
- March Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 57.9 (Briefing.com consensus 65.6); Prior 64.7
- The key takeaway from the report is that the weakening in sentiment cut across groups by age, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions, with inflation concerns and policy uncertainty jumping out as key factors for the drop in sentiment.
Looking ahead to Monday, market participants receive the following data: March Empire State Manufacturing (prior 5.7), February Retail Sales (prior -0.9%), and Retail Sales ex-auto (prior -0.4%) at 8:30 ET; and January Business Inventories (prior -0.2%) and March NAHB Housing Market Index (prior 42) at 10:00 ET
Treasuries settle lower
14-Mar-25 15:35 ET
Dow +626.26 at 41439.52, Nasdaq +414.14 at 17717.15, S&P +107.19 at 5628.71
[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices remain near highs ahead of the close.
The 10-yr yield settled three basis points higher at 4.31% and the 2-yr yield settled seven basis points higher at 4.02%.
Looking ahead to Monday, market participants receive the following data: March Empire State Manufacturing (prior 5.7), February Retail Sales (prior -0.9%), and Retail Sales ex-auto (prior -0.4%) at 8:30 ET; and January Business Inventories (prior -0.2%) and March NAHB Housing Market Index (prior 42) at 10:00 ET
Energy sector leads S&P 500
14-Mar-25 15:05 ET
Dow +605.23 at 41418.49, Nasdaq +398.56 at 17701.57, S&P +102.25 at 5623.77
[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 600 points and the S&P 500 sports a 1.9% gain, up more than 100 points.
WTI crude oil futures settled 1.0% to $67.19/bbl. On a related note, the S&P 500 energy sector leads the 11 sectors, showing a 2.7% gain.
The defensive-oriented consumer staples (+0.1%) and health care (+0.4%) sectors show the slimmest gains.
S&P 500 climbs as Crown Castle, Palantir lead gains; Abbott Labs slips on potential legal woes
14-Mar-25 14:30 ET
Dow +545.33 at 41358.59, Nasdaq +365.39 at 17668.40, S&P +93.36 at 5614.88
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.69%) is in second place among the major averages on Friday afternoon.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Crown Castle (CCI 103.07, +9.54, +10.21%), Palantir Technologies (PLTR 86.24, +6.62, +8.31%), and Celanese (CE 56.68, +3.59, +6.76%) pepper the top of the standings. CCI is higher on earnings, while PLTR announced that six new companies—Epirus, Red Cat, Saildrone, Saronic, Ursa Major, and SNC—are adopting its Warp Speed platform to enhance U.S. manufacturing capabilities.
Meanwhile, Chicago-based medtech firm Abbott Labs (ABT 126.42, -3.47, -2.67%) is weaker today after a judge overturns verdict in Whitfield infant formula case, raising litigation concerns for ABT.
Gold surges past $3,000 for first time ever amid economic uncertainty and safe-haven demand
14-Mar-25 14:00 ET
Dow +530.19 at 41343.45, Nasdaq +379.41 at 17682.42, S&P +95.47 at 5616.99
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Friday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+2.19%) is today's top-performing major average, clawing back a decent portion of this week's losses.
Gold futures settled $9.70 higher (+0.3%) to $3,001.00/oz, finishing above $3K for first time ever amid economic uncertainty and safe-haven demand; on the week, the yellow metal added +2.98%.
Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.1% to $103.72.
Semtech's upside Q4 results places data center growth, NVIDIA partnership in the spotlight (SMTC)
On February 7, high-performance semiconductor maker Semtech (SMTC) warned that it expects FY26 sales from its CopperEdge products to be lower than anticipated with no expected ramp-up during the year, sending shares spiraling lower by over 30%. Against this bearish backdrop, the company delivered upside Q4 results last night, but more importantly, its Q1 EPS and revenue guidance met analysts' estimates, signaling that the negative surprise from February has been baked in and that its business may be poised to rebound once this headwind passes.
- SMTC's CopperEdge products, which are used in active copper cables, are key components within AI data center infrastructure, facilitating high-speed, low-latency data transmission. NVIDIA (NVDA), a major customer of SMTC's in this business, informed SMTC that it was implementing rack architecture changes to address overheating issues in its new processing unit. These changes are significantly impacting sales of CopperEdge products, which SMTC said in February would dip below the $50 mln floor that it previously estimated.
- In Q4, the company achieved record data sales of $50 mln, equating to a yr/yr surge of 183%. The robust growth highlights SMTC's strong position and opportunities within the AI data center market. On that note, NVDA's upcoming launch of its next-gen AI GPU called Rubin -- now anticipated in 2H25 -- should provide a potent growth catalyst for SMTC later this year.
- Meanwhile, the company's IoT business is set to benefit from the Department of Defense's decision to place China-based Quectel on the restricted list of miliary suppliers. In particular, SMTC is seeing robust demand for its low-power wide-area networks (LPWAN) and long-range (LoRa) products, filling the void left by Quectel's absence in the market.
- Driven by a 30% jump in revenue and an 80 bps qtr/qtr expansion in gross margin to 53.2%, EPS improved dramatically to $0.40 compared to $(0.06) in the year-earlier period. By focusing on product optimization and debt reduction in FY26, SMTC expects to drive margins and cash flow higher this fiscal year. Building and maintaining a competitive edge in markets such as wireless connectivity and power management, while enhancing its manufacturing and packaging processes, should lead to stronger profits. Furthermore, after decreasing its net debt by 68% yr/yr in FY25, SMTC intends to pay down even more debt in FY26, lowering its cash interest payments.
While SMTC is currently facing disruptions with its CopperEdge products due to a configuration change at key customer NVDA, the company's in-line Q1 guidance eased concerns that this situation would cause another step-down in its FY26 outlook. Looking beyond the CopperEdge-related headwinds, SMTC's future looks bright, thanks to its growing presence in the AI data center infrastructure market.
Rubrik surges as data security company achieves record subscription revenue growth in Q4 (RBRK)
Recent earnings reports from the cybersecurity space have been mixed-at-best, so sentiment was skewing on the cautious side ahead of Rubrik's (RBRK) Q4 results. The cloud data management and data protection company, though, delivered another impressive beat-and-raise performance featuring record subscription revenue growth of 54% to $243.7 mln, indicating that it's gaining market share amid a choppy demand environment.
One of the main knocks against RBRK is that the company is not profitable. However, RBRK is making considerable progress in this area as non-GAAP EPS improved to $(0.18) from $(1.52) in the prior-year period. Additionally, the company is cash flow positive, diminishing the concerns surrounding profitability. In fact, in Q4, cash flow from operations increased by 553% yr/yr to $83.6 mln.
A combination of demand-related factors and better operational efficiency is fueling RBRK's stronger financials.
- One of the most closely watched metrics for RBRK is subscription ARR, which grew by a robust 39% yr/yr to $1.093 bln, surpassing expectations. The company is seeing strong demand for its flagship Cloud Data Management product. This unified platform manages data across on-premises, hybrid, and multi-cloud environments, providing data backup, recovery, and data recovery capabilities.
- New customer acquisitions and effective cross-selling efforts are also bolstering subscription ARR growth. In Q4, RBRK saw a 29% yr/yr jump in customers with $100,000 or more in subscription ARR, for 2,246 such customers. Once on-boarded, RBRK's customers are tacking on additional products, as reflected by a subscription net revenue retention (NRR) rate that's consistently north of 120%.
- While RBRK's expenses are rising sharply -- they were up by 45% yr/yr in Q4 to $315.8 mln -- the company is benefitting from enhanced operational efficiencies and better operating leverage. Consequently, subscription ARR contribution margin expanded to 2% compared to -12% in the year-earlier period.
- Cybersecurity companies CrowdStrike (CRWD), Akamai Tech (AKAM), and SentinelOne (S), issued soft guidance in recent weeks, putting RBRK's guidance under the spotlight. The company didn't disappoint as its EPS and revenue outlooks for both 1Q26 and FY26 exceeded expectations. Along with the tailwinds of an ongoing cloud transition across enterprises, new product momentum -- particularly around AI -- should provide a lift in FY26. For instance, Annapurna is RBRK's new technology that's designed to facilitate the development of GenAI applications by providing secure, API-driven access to enterprise-wide data. The product integrates seamlessly with platforms such as Amazon Bedrock.
Bolstered by effective cross-selling efforts, new customer acquisitions, and resilient demand for its data management and protection platform, RBRK easily surpassed Q4 expectations, while providing a bullish outlook for FY26. The company's impressive results and outlook stand in contrast to other cybersecurity names like SentinelOne (S), which issued soft guidance on Wednesday night.
DocuSign signs off on FY25 with a bang; its US business has finally started to reaccelerate (DOCU)
DocuSign (DOCU +17%) is making a big move following its Q4 (Jan) report last night. The e-signature/contract creation giant reported a modest EPS beat with upside margins. Revenue rose 9.0% yr/yr to $776.3 mln, which was better than analyst expectations and also DOCU's strongest yr/yr growth in six quarters. It was not all good news as DOCU guided Q1 (Apr) and FY26 revs below expectations. But we do not think investors are worried because DOCU tends to be conservative.
- In terms of key operating metrics, billings is a closely watched number. Billings in Q4 accelerated to +11% yr/yr from +9% in Q3 to $923.2 mln, well above the $870-880 mln prior guidance. We think the strong billings number is more than offsetting any concerns about the guidance. Following a fairly downbeat billings number in Q2 (Jul), we think investors are happy to see billings bounce back in Q3 and then accelerate in Q4.
- An important catalyst for the strong billings has been early success with its recently-launched Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM) platform. The Docusign IAM platform is a significant departure from its past approach of only offering standalone products. This platform combines current products (eSignature, CLM) with new platform services, including Docusign Maestro.
- DOCU launched IAM to SMB and mid-market customers in the US, Canada and Australia in early June 2024, then to enterprise customers at the beginning of December 2024. In Q4, just the second quarter post-launch, IAM represented a high-single-digit percentage of in-quarter deal volume for the direct channel and over 20% of direct new customer deals. Customer demand continues to exceed expectations. IAM has quickly become the fastest-growing new product in DocuSign's history.
- International growth is a key goal for DOCU. Intl revs grew 12% in Q4 and represented 28% of total revenue. DOCU says its international business, which is still growing faster on a relative basis, encountered growth headwinds in FY25. The good news is that DOCU sees the Q4 launch of IAM outside of North America as creating a significant opportunity. Although it is still early for IAM internationally, Q4 IAM deal volume in Europe and Latin America combined were up 6x from Q3.
DOCU's fairly modest Q4 EPS upside and downside guidance do not seem to warrant such a big move in the stock today. However, DOCU's billings metric seems to matter to investors more than it does for other companies. Also, the stock has been weak lately, so sentiment was running low. Taking a step back, it is clear that DOCU's US business has finally started to reaccelerate and it is really being fueled by the IAM launch, which sounds like it is off to a great start and that is getting investors excited.
And it's not just the SMB/mid-market, the potential within the enterprise market looks robust and it is just getting started. DocuSign was struggling following its pandemic-era fueled growth when digital documents were all the rage. But it now seems to finally be regaining its footing. We also still think DOCU is a possible acquisition target at some point.
UiPath issues gloomy FY26 guidance following recent significant shift in economic landscape (PATH)
UiPath (PATH -14%) is forecasting a bumpy road ahead, to say the least, creating anxiety and spurring all-time lows today. The robotic process automation software developer warned of a significant uptick in volatility across the macroeconomic landscape in recent weeks. When speaking with customers, PATH has found that the external environment has generated outsized uncertainty around budgeting plans. To add to this headache, FX rates have fluctuated wildly over the past week. PATH also expects growth in its SaaS offerings to act as a 2 pt headwind to FY26 (Jan) sales growth as customers move more workloads to the cloud and adopt AI products.
Incorporating these events, PATH found it necessary to inject prudence into its guidance, believing it appropriately factored in all current macro trends. As a result, PATH projected Q1 (Apr) and FY26 revs markedly below consensus, estimating $330-335 mln and 1.525-1.530 bln, respectively, while targeting annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of $1.816-1.821 bln for the year, a disappointing 9% yr/yr increase at the midpoint.
- Given PATH's outlook, little attention was paid to the few silver linings from Q4 results. PATH registered adjusted EPS of $0.26, its best quarter as a public company, supported by a 400 bp jump in non-GAAP operating margins yr/yr to 32%. Additionally, PATH achieved GAAP profitability for the second straight year in FY25.
- PATH also announced the acquisition of Peak, an AI firm that optimizes product inventory and pricing for businesses. Given that PATH's software suite looks to automate processes for companies, from aligning resumes with current job openings to sending emails and building spreadsheets based on incoming data, Peak's AI platform is a good fit. By leveraging Peak's technology, the acquisition should also help enhance PATH's current AI-powered offerings. No financial details were disclosed, however.
- Unfortunately for PATH, the upsides stopped there. Revenue growth continued to slow in Q4, edging just 4.6% higher yr/yr to $424 mln following an +8.8% increase last quarter. Even worse, ARR grew by just 14% to $1.666 bln, under the company's $1.669-1.674 bln forecast. Management attributed the miss to the government transition beginning in January, which affected deal closures. CEO Daniel Dines acknowledged that as the government works through priorities, it can impact performance in the short term, hindering ARR growth in 1H26.
- Still, management remains optimistic about the foundation it is constructing to realize long-term gains. For the year, PATH is focused on three primary initiatives: accelerating its agentic (AI agents) roadmap, bolstering adoption, and extracting further organizational efficiencies.
PATH's Q4 report highlighted how quick the macroeconomic picture can change. Its software can still be a game-changer for organizations seeking ways to trim costs without losing productivity. However, elevated volatility may keep investors away from the stock over the near term as they digest continuously impactful headlines and the potential effects administrative policies, like tariffs, could have on the spending environment.
Intels CEO appointment renews turnaround hopes, sparking huge rally for shares (INTC)
For beleaguered chip maker Intel (INTC), hope and optimism has been hard to come by as NVIDIA (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have left it in the dust in the AI race, but there is finally good reason for INTC shareholders to feel more upbeat about the company's future. After yesterday's close, INTC announced that Lip-Bu Tan, the former CEO of Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), has been appointed as its new CEO, effective March 18. Mr. Tan succeeds David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthhaus, both of whom stepped into co-CEO roles after the company ousted former CEO Pat Gelsinger last December.
Mr. Tan certainly has his work cut out for him. At the top of the list will be charting out a new path for the loss-generating Foundry business which was at the center of Mr. Gelsinger's IDM 2.0 strategy. Last September, INTC announced plans to spin-off the Foundry segment into an independent subsidiary. However, Mr. Tan, who served on INTC's Board in 2022-2024, has previously discussed the importance of strengthening the company's manufacturing capabilities, suggesting that he may be committed to building Foundry just as Gelsinger was.
- The good news is that Tan has a strong track record of using innovation and new technology to create competitive advantages and drive strong growth, building substantial shareholder value in the process. At CDNS, he pushed for AI/ML technologies to be integrated across the product line, positioning the company as a leader in applying next generation technologies for chip design. Under Tan's leadership, CDNS also shifted to a high-performance product portfolio, catering to advanced node semiconductor designs.
- These strategies resulted in robust growth and improving margins for CDNS. Over Tan's 12-year tenure as CEO there, revenue nearly doubled to $2.8 bln, and CDNS's operating margin improved from roughly flat to consistently above 20%.
- Tan also has experience implementing and executing streamlining initiatives, which will continue to play a major role in INTC's turnaround. In 2012, he implemented a major organizational restructuring at CDNS, leading to better alignment of resources and higher operational efficiency.
- Perhaps Tan's success at CDNS is best illustrated by the stock's performance. When he took the helm at CDNS in 2009, the stock was trading at about $10-$12. By the time he stepped down in 2021, shares of CDNS were trading at around $150-$170, reflecting an approximate 15-fold increase.
There is no guarantee that Tan will enjoy the same level of success as INTC's CEO as he did as CDNS's CEO. However, given his impressive performance at CDNS, it's easy to see why the market is viewing his appointment so bullishly.
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