Sid, I agree that Methanex and DB/Ballard will not have an easy time bringing Methanol to the public without large enough demand. On this point, I don't think too many people will argue. I would like to know who bankrolled the introduction of diesel, propane and other new fuels over the past few decades, as they would face the same issues as Methanol. Obviously, someone saw $ at the end of the tunnel - I guess the question at the heart of the dicussion is how long is the tunnel? Is it 8+ years before we see profits, 2-5 years or something else (yes, including no profits at all for those pesimists in the crowd). Only time will tell.
As I mentioned earlier (about 6 months ago I believe), a local Petro Canada station here in town (Victoria, BC, pop. 300,000) already has a methanol pump. If there is one here already (and who knows, there may be more than one in town - I haven't been to all the gas stations yet - and don't intend to), I can only surmise that other cities would already have methanol pump(s). I don't know "why" there is a methanol pump, but I would assume that the station must have made a sufficiently strong business case to get one and there must already be a market for the stuff. I will try and find out why and post the answer.
Bottom line, if FC cars are the wave of the future, someone will see the $ and finance the build out (heck, even a politician may see this as a defining issue for election!). Who knows how long, what cost, and which players will be left standing at the end of the day. Without any other "real" players, I believe DB/Ballard and Methanex are the only ones to pick if you truly want to play this game. Who knows, I may be eating crow in another year when Siemens, Toyota, Ma Bell, or Coca Cola buys everyone out and makes the windfall profits. Right now, stick with the known players who have the "best" chance for success.
As per Ballard vs. ERC, I personally don't care which one is a "better" deal (if Sid is right, we should all buy ERC!) - I want the FC car/bus business. If Ballard succeeds, the profits will be "huge" as this market is tremendous. Then they can continue their work in stationary power and kick any competitors butt, assuming they have the supperior technology (even if not, they can buy out the competition).
What I like best about this thread is the scenario I just painted (Ballard using their FC car/bus profits to squash the FC stationary business) is "as likely" a scenario as any one that has been presented to date. I would strongly urge all readers/posters to put their vision of the future forward - helps me decide to stay or go.
Sorry, but here is the usual "thanks to Sid" comment:
Sid, thanks for your posts - very informative! I don't always like the comments, but then again, I'd be surprised if everyone likes what I have to say all the time. There is always room for a black hat thinker - we all need to listen for these valuable insights and gleam the important bits of info.
Michael |
