Palestinian Ballot Presents Quandary for Hamas
By STEVEN ERLANGER
The New York Times
January 8, 2005
GAZA, Jan. 7 - The boys from Hamas were busy ripping down the placards to put up a message of their own, under the snapping green flags of Islam.
But their message was not about Sunday's presidential election; it was a commemoration of a Hamas hero, Yahya Ayyash, a master bomb maker known as the Engineer who was killed by Israel nine years ago this week with a booby-trapped cellphone.
Hamas, which seeks Israel's destruction, is urging its supporters to boycott the election, which is to replace Yasir Arafat. Yet the poll is nearly as big a test for Hamas as for those actually running. For several years, its popularity was on the rise. But now, after four years of violence and the death of Mr. Arafat, Hamas is struggling against a shift in political sentiment toward the mainstream and a new possibility for improved relations with Israel.
Opinion polls show a clear movement away from Hamas. Political analysts say the group is in a state of confusion.
Mahmoud Abbas, who succeeded Mr. Arafat as leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization and who is the candidate of Fatah, the largest Palestinian faction, is widely expected to win in a field of seven. The only real challenger to Mr. Abbas, who is 69 and is known as Abu Mazen, is Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, who runs a health care agency in the West Bank.
But Mr. Abbas's margin of victory, and the turnout, will be examined carefully to gauge the balance of power between Fatah and Hamas.
The rise of Hamas paralleled the decline and corruption of the Palestinian Authority and pessimism about the peace process. Fatah is relying on Mr. Abbas to continue to reverse those trends now that there are new possibilities for dialogue and peace with the Israelis and a chance for reform of the dysfunctional Palestinian Authority. On Friday, Mr. Abbas repeated his call for talks with Israel.
Hamas wants a weakened Mr. Abbas, both Palestinian and Israeli analysts agree. Hamas is hoping that even if Mr. Abbas wins with 60 percent of the vote, a low turnout will undercut his legitimacy. Even a 70 percent turnout would allow them to claim that 30 percent of voters heeded the call to stay at home.
"No one can dare put up a poster of Barghouti or Abu Mazen here," said a young Hamas man who seemed to be in charge of the wall placards. "There was nothing and there will be nothing," just the tribute to the Engineer. It serves to remind Gazans that Hamas is fighting the Israelis while Mr. Abbas is asking for an end to violence, calling it counterproductive to the goal of a negotiated, independent Palestinian state.
Hamas - the word is the Arabic acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and means "zeal" or "bravery" - has ordered its members not to vote on Sunday, on the principle that the Palestinian Authority is an outgrowth of the 1993 Oslo accords with Israel, whose legitimacy as a state Hamas rejects.
Fatah was founded by Mr. Arafat. The name means "conquest," and is a reverse acronym for the Movement for the National Liberation of Palestine. It has a nationalist rather than Islamist foundation, with the stated goal of an end to Israeli occupation of the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, leading to Israeli and Palestinian states side by side.
Hamas did take part last month in some local elections on the West Bank, where it did reasonably well in areas where Fatah was strong. Hamas is also concentrating on legislative elections, the first since 1996 and also integral to the Palestinian Authority, which could come in May.
The contradictions in Hamas's position do not stop there, said Taher al-Nounou, the Gazan correspondent for Al Khaleej, a newspaper in the United Arab Emirates. "Hamas is obligated to get into the political process," he said. "It has no other option, and its thinking is developing. It wants a share of power, and not to be a pure opposition."
Its top leaders have been assassinated by Israel over the past year, so Hamas had no well-known candidate to run in the election, even if it had wanted to. And Mr. Arafat's death has already produced an increase in Fatah's popularity compared with Hamas's, as indicated by every reputable Palestinian opinion poll.
"The scenario is the same as after Oslo in 1993, when optimism rose among Palestinians," said Salah Abdel Shafi, an economist from a founding family of the P.L.O. "Then, Hamas shrank. But it waited, quite confident that at a certain stage things would get worse and explode, and this is what happened."
But the main difference now, Mr. Shafi said, is vital: "Hamas is now a military power in the Palestinian areas, and you can't ignore them."
Still, he said, Hamas appears to be confused - surprised by the sudden death of Mr. Arafat, surprised that Fatah so quickly and smoothly settled on Mr. Abbas, surprised that Fatah appears to be stronger and more united now. "Hamas expected a leadership crisis and chaos after Arafat died," Mr. Shafi said.
Even the Hamas boycott call came a little late, when Hamas's more atomized leadership realized that many of its supporters, who had registered to vote in local elections, were likely to vote for Mr. Abbas in the name of Palestinian unity.
Hamas has also broadened its criticism of Mr. Abbas only in the last 10 days, as it has also intensified its rocket and mortar campaign against Israel in direct rejection of Mr. Abbas's call to stop.
Mr. Abbas has decent relations with Hamas leaders going back many years, and he made a point of meeting with them here after Mr. Arafat died to discuss their demands and desires for a share in power, and to ask them to keep the situation calm and the violence down, at least during the campaign.
But when Mr. Abbas visited Gaza earlier this week, Hamas refused to meet with him and demanded that he retract his call for an end to rocket attacks against Israel and apologize.
"These attacks on our fighters do not serve the interests of the people," Hamas said in a statement. "The enemy is exploiting these remarks to pursue its aggression on our people."
The tension has risen to the point that the Fatah Central Committee issued a statement on Thursday specifically calling on Hamas to stop attacking Mr. Abbas, accusing it of "open incitement against Abu Mazen" and demanding that it respect "Palestinian unity."
An opinion poll taken a week ago by Khalil Shikaki of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research showed support for Fatah at 41 percent and for Hamas at 20 percent, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Support for Hamas in the West Bank is about 15 percent, and in Gaza, about 28 percent.
Still, support for Mr. Abbas in Gaza is around 70 percent, according to the poll, compared to 62 percent on the West Bank, an indication of how tired the Gazans are of this latest cycle of violence and destitution.
Hamas, a disciplined organization with a long view, is nonetheless prepared to work with a new Palestinian Authority to take what it considers its proper leadership role. Under the slogan "Partners in blood, partners in decision-making," Hamas has asked for a "unity government," including ministries.
Hamas wants a negotiated role, but Mr. Abbas and Fatah have responded that Hamas should run in elections and have the size of its role determined by the voters. But Fatah also knows that it will do better in legislative elections if it has its own internal elections first, to replace some wealthy, aging leaders who returned with Mr. Arafat from exile and to bring in a younger generation born in the Palestinian territories.
Gazans want a quieter life, said Ismail Sommad, 33, a leader of the Fatah youth organization here. "People are tired of these provocations to Israel, this policy of resistance and rockets," he said. "People have really suffered from that policy, and there is a big voice to stop."
Hamas also does not want a military confrontation with a stronger Fatah. "If Hamas feels some safety and security with Abu Mazen, they will commit to a long-term cease-fire," Mr. Sommad said. "But that will have to be coupled with a clear political understanding with Fatah about many issues, including how to react to Israeli incursions, house demolitions and targeted assassinations, if these continue. But what we're talking about is opening the door to real negotiations."
Hamas, he said, "is willing to go along for now, for internal reasons." As for Fatah, "we need to achieve a stable, secure and democratic life," he said. "To be honest, it's the last chance for us."
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