"What seems absent to me in the pro-Apple discussion is any candid evaluation of the
marketplace. Why would a non-Apple user convert to Apple at this point?"
For the time being, while Apple is, hopefully, developing strategies and working their way out of the hole they are in, they do not need to win converts; it will be enough for them to keep the customers they already have, worst case.
Apple has long been the dominant computer in many school settings. While I was in college a generation ago, Apple II's became the stalwart, and Apple has always had a strong presence in schools. That continues to be the case, thought the PC has made strong inroads into that market, also. I know many younger users who HATE PC's, and they will continue to buy and use Apple products for the next few years anyway, as they continue the "computer habits" they learned in school. In fact, I will be buying an Apple system in the near future for home use; my "right brain" family, as well as a significant number of friends and other acquaintances, have never *enjoyed* using PC's, but *enjoyed* using Apples all the time when they were around, regardless of how useful one is over the other. I am not sure why; I can use them both and it is clear to me that Apple's OS has lagged behind Windows9xx versions in some ways. But it has also, always been clear that there is a distinct group of computer users who simply prefer to use Apple's products. I have no objective explanation for this, but I have observed it, and I believe it will continue for a while. And one thing to keep in mind, is Apple's strength in the notebook market; if they can solve some of their problems there, and deliver enough to meet demand, while continuing to upgrade the product line, that will help them considerably.
However, Apple cannot continue to ride this loyalty as a business strategy. The products have GOT to get better, and the company has GOT to be run better, so customers and developers can have faith in both; it looks to me as though they have the ingredients to do this, but I don't know if they have the "mind" to do it. It is a real dilemma, trying to figure out what is going on in the collective "mind" at Apple, ie, the group of managers, directors and other leaders who decide what to do and how to do it (or sometimes, to do nothing, apparently!)
Computers are so complex and also, so essential now, that buying one, and investing hundreds/thousands of hours of time becoming proficient on one, demands that the choice of which one to buy and use be made carefully and with the future of the machine/company in mind. Apple still has a chance, but this is probably it; if they don't perform soon, perhaps the doomsayers will have their funeral.
But, I'm an optimist; when I met Bill Gates back in the early eighties, I thought he seemed like a nice guy......don't expect much critical analysis from me!
Larry |
