Greater China
May 5, 2005
China's electric power sector reaches growth limit
BEIJING - Industry analysts have warned that China's construction of electric power plants has reached a growth limit and urged the country to make immense efforts to conserve in a bid to deal with a continuing electricity shortage.
Since China started its economic reforms in 1978, the installed capacity of electric power has increased rapidly. Especially since the start of the 21st century, the country's demand for electric power has risen sharply, leading to continuing shortages of electricity.
China's total installed capacity reached 440 million kilowatts (kW) by 2004, and is expected to reach 500-510 million kW by the end of 2005. The electric power industry has developed by leaps and bounds when one considers the road it has taken. It took 108 years to bring installed capacity from nothing in 1879 to 100 million kW in 1987, and then only eight years to achieve the second 100 million kW between 1987 to 1995. The third 100 million kW was built in five years from 1995 to 2000, and then the fourth 100 million kW in four years from 2000 to 2004.
Total installed capacity is forecast to increase 60-70 million kW in 2005. Since 1980, China has led the world in growth of electricity production. Its average annual increase of installed capacity increased 7.98% in the 1980-2002 period, 5.3 percentage points higher than the world's average level, and six percentage points higher than that of developed countries in Europe and the United States.
Thanks to the fast growth in installed capacity, China's installed capacity ranking globally has risen continually. It ranked seventh in the world after the United States, Russia, Japan, Germany, Canada and Britain in 1980, but jumped to the second place in 1996, trailing only the United States.
At present, China's installed capacity and annual output of electricity is only about half that of the United States, which is the biggest country in terms of installed capacity and annual production of electricity in the world. Installed capacity increased by 8 million kW in the US in 1992-2000, while that in China increased by 19 million kW. China's annual increase in installed capacity reached 50 million kW in 2004, and is forecast to reach 60-70 million kW in 2005, about one or two times more than that of the US.
China's output of electricity increased by 281.8 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2004, about 50% of the world increase in electricity output in that year. But the present speed of China's power construction is already very fast and may have reached a limit in terms of growth rate. Therefore, the country should pay more attention to energy conservation and control of domestic demand, according to industry experts.
China produced 193,125 million kWh of electricity in December 2004. The annual output in 2004 reached 2,130,228 million kWh, up 14.9% year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Of the energy produced in December, 163,636 million kWh was produced by thermal power, which accounted for a 2004 output of 1,770,171 million kWh, up 14.4% year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. 22,271 million kWh of hydroelectric power was produced in the same month; hydroelectric output in 2004 reached 306,523 million kWh, up 17.6% year on year. Lastly, 3,880 million kWh of nuclear power was produced in December 2004. Nuclear power output in 2004 reached 50,007 million kWh, up 14.2% year on year.
(Asia Pulse/XIC) |
