American Future: The Asia Times has an excellent article on the power game that's being played over who calls the shots and retains influence in the Indian Ocean region, and by default the rest of Asia. Comments at the end.
Power play in tsunami's wake
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Tragedy notwithstanding, the tsunami strike has witnessed nations flexing their presence to provide relief to the victims, but behind it all a power game is also being played over who calls the shots and retains influence in the Indian Ocean region, and by default the rest of Asia.
In the cauldron are the two Asian giants of China and India, the latter having refused international aid as it is a donor nation as well as a victim, a move seen by many Western commentators as churlish. India wants the United States to retain its pre-eminence in the region to preempt China, while China is apprehensive of Japan rearming itself should the US withdraw its troops from the region.
Both India and China face neighbors that they consider problematic. India has Pakistan, while China has Japan to deal with. As matters have evolved, a status quo has emerged, with most nations abiding by the primacy of the US in continuing to play the pivotal role in the region. China raised the level of its involvement in the tragedy as the situation developed, with Japan and India upping their stakes. At the same time, experts say that India and China want to continue with their military entente, with India's army chief visiting the country, to keep the US at a distance.
As things stand, the United Nations is going to coordinate further aid efforts for the more than 5 million affected people in 13 countries, as made apparent at the one-day emergency meeting of world leaders of 26 nations and international organizations in Jakarta on Thursday - they pledged US$3.7 billion in immediate help. The US, in contrast to its stand on Iraq, lined up along with other countries behind UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, with US Secretary of State Colin Powell announcing in Jakarta the disbanding of the core group of nations (Australia, India, Japan, Canada and the Netherlands, apart from the US) set up initially to manage the crisis.
Though it may seem that all has ended well for now, the events of the past few days have revealed the underbelly of the subtle geopolitics of the region. It was not lost on observers that Annan repeatedly had to allay fears in Jakarta that military assets being deployed in the affected areas might remain after the crisis is over.
Ocean of trouble
Over the years, both China and India have given up their demand for US troop withdrawal from Asia. Beijing is aware that if US troops pull out, a threatened Japan could rearm itself. The reasoning is not very different in New Delhi, which has given up the 1970s slogan of "Indian Ocean as a zone of peace" that focused on US forces in the region being withdrawn. New Delhi knows that if the US military leaves East Asia and the Persian Gulf, someone else will move to fill the power vacuum, and that someone is more than likely to be China.
Indeed, Powell, known for taking a moral stance on issues, pulled up nations, saying that the quantum of aid for tsunami victims was not an auction between countries. Unfortunately, this is what it has turned out to be. The US upped its initial pledge of a mere $35 million to $350 million in the face of criticism that the initial amount was less than the budget for President George W Bush's re-election campaign.
China increased the amount similarly, raising its initial commitment of $20 million by an extra $40 million. It has not gone unnoticed either that India had chosen to join the core group of donor nations that included the US and its major Asian allies Australia and Japan, despite being a victim of the tragedy. The initial message from Beijing was that China was still a developing country. But with the setting up of the core group, including two of China's closest neighbors, India and Japan, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, raised Beijing's stake in the relief, catapulting it to the top 10 on the donor lists.
Western commentators have been playing up the numbers game as an indication of the stakes involved. For instance, it has been noticed that Japan, with a $500 million aid package, has outdone both the US ($350 million) and China, which committed only $63 million despite its higher military stakes in the region. India has never been happy about the Chinese presence in the area. India's aid of $23 million rushed to Sri Lanka within hours of the disaster has also been commented about, along with the deployment of what is now being seen as the most equipped navy in the Indian Ocean, a fact that was re-emphasized by Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh in Jakarta: "We are happy to place the strengths of the Indian navy for use in humanitarian relief in the region." New Delhi has dispatched three survey ships converted to hospitals-at-sea - one to Nicobar, one to Sri Lanka and one to Indonesia.
There is no denying that both India and China want to ensure their geostrategic presence in the region in the wake of the tsunami tragedy. Writing in the Times of India, Washington-based foreign editor Chidanand Rajghatta says, "As major powers of the world summon their financial and military might to help the victims, New Delhi has put its own imprint on the region in the wake of the tragedy. While some may find talk of geostrategy repugnant in the face of the disaster, Western analysts are following every move by the US and Asian powers in the region. Several commentaries have spoken of which country is outmaneuvering the other."
In a statement, Ronen Sen, India's ambassador to the US, emphasizing India's pre-eminence, said, "The reason why India was approached to join the team of core nations was because it is a country with major capabilities. We have the largest navy in the Indian Ocean. There are good reasons why it is called the Indian Ocean ... it has always been in the Indian sphere of influence. To get a measure of India's territorial expanse, Western experts should try superimposing the map of Europe over that of India. It is often overlooked, even by Indians, that the distance from Delhi to Dushanbe in Central Asia is less than to many southern Indian cities. Sad as it is, it took the tsunami to realize India's expanse. Even the British who drew our maps first have no idea of this now."
Bush, who is known to subscribe to New Delhi's power aspirations as a counter to China, said during his visit to the Indian Embassy to condole the victims, "I want to thank the Indian government for taking a lead in this issue. One of the first things that we did was to put together a core group of nations, nations that are capable of organizing relief efforts around the region, and the Indian government has been especially strong, as a part of this core group."
Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh was joined by Powell and Florida Governor (and George W's brother) Jeb Bush, Chinese Premier Wen and Annan in Jakarta. The conference was much more than just a high-profile meeting of nations looking to provide aid to more than 5 million people affected, under the aegis of the UN. Behind the announcements of the much-needed doles to the victims was the veiled politics of national and international geopolitical ambitions.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.
What does this article tell us? First and foremost, the US serves as a balancer in the Indian Ocean region: our military and diplomatic presence prevents relations between China and India, and China and Japan, from generating too many sparks. While not discussed in this article, we play the same beneficial role vis-a-vis India and Pakistan. Absent our uncontestable military superiority and our assertiveness, the relations among China, India, Japan, and Pakistan would be far more bellicose. |
