kodiakbull$hi^^er ?
re:
[" Warp:
You're a little slow on the uptake, aren't you? You jus' plain don't get it.
It doesn't matter what time frame you look at, or when the boys in bozoland "made the call," the time frame will always be just what Slimer says it is. If 60 weeks looks better than 80 weeks, then 60 it is. If they've lost 10 or 20% of their investment in the last 6 weeks it doesn't matter. You see, they've always traded out at the top, traded in at the bottom, making practically monopoly profits at every turn."]
....kodiak; this is getting so old.
Simply amazing... talk about the "pot calling the kettle black"... YOU are the one who continually uses the incorrect timeframes on sector comparisons & I've continually posted the links proving that.
This isn't about a contest as to who - out timed who...
What it is; is a lesson about iNet message boards who - "can't take the truth !"
- literally.
My entire point is that a very select "few" on this original thread - spoke to the Nat Gas mania at the very peak of investor & thread sentiment here on SI SD and called it a top for that very reason - ie: a "too perfect storm" and called for taking profits & going short... that was Dec 30th 2000; literally within 24 hours of the XNG top.
- that's fact.
And what else is fact - is that this entire thread of permabullian chihuahua's poo-poo'd that call & started an online food fight. But; that's not news.... shouldn't be anyway ?
95% of all iNet stock message boards are inhabited by Bullish investors who do NOT want to hear about their unbridled sentiment - especially that "they" are the near perfect contrarian sell/profit taking indicator. They don't want to hear about the bearish arguement... they don't want to hear that they're morons for "max margining" at cyclical tops... they don't want to hear that the present "sterling fundamentals" of earnings & commodity prices don't matter - as that is EXACTLY when & where most cyclical tops are reached etc.
... they want to swap fish stories & slap each other on the back. They don't want to be reminded that they were long & on margin at NAZ 3500 to 3800... trying to trade LONG all the way down to NAZ 2000.
They don't want to be reminded that they finally became "big bad Bears" at NAZ 1800 after taking 2000 points up the ass.
95% of all iNet message boards reach a sentiment peak - right at the top & ususally right before cyclical sectors tank... that shouldn't be a surprise either.
The bulls here were no different - the peak of the Nat Gas mania in Dec 2000 was the textbook case for this concept.
And once again; this spring when "some of us" - pointed out the rapidity of the supply build trends & the early warning indicators of a global recession and talked about how it only took an "Asian contagian" the last time to topple Oil demand... again "we" were wrong for exiting & just maintaining partial trading positions with one eye firmly fixed on the exit door & a food fight once again broke out....because we were too Bearish once again.
And as far as having "traded out at the top" ... I think the one thing that "some of us" have never been accused of doing - is failing to take profits on ALL trading bounces... ie: THE TURN of late etc.... the last thing "we" have ever been accused of - is rolling over (vbg).
You guys left & started HTP... continued to trade the SOX & Nasdq stocks along with energy long ... but; what the longterm charts show - is that since this original thread split & the food fights broke out in the fall of 2000.... Energy, the SOX and Tech in General - along with the broad market have fallen dramatically and literally - the only leading sector discussed on these threads that performed significantly to the upside was "GOLD" - the HUI reached a +90% YTD level earlier this year.... plus + 90 % !
But, I guess we failed to take any of those profits and of course; we could NOT have possibly profitably traded a 12 month sector double profitably now could we ? And since it just retraced 10 to 20% from a 100% YTD run; we've OBVIOUSLY lost our asses... of course; that as opposed to YOUR NAZ 3800 to 1600 collapse, your buying into the Nat Gas new paradigm story & rolling over on BOTH the Gas & the OSX cycles ?
Yes; Kodiak... what fools we were; what was I thinking ? Who could have possibly traded that 100% move in the unhedged Gold stocks profitably over the last year (Tommy-boy excepted of course) ROFLMAO ?
Now you guys can spin, twist, deny & lie all you want... but, since the Fall of 2000 when all this started - the DOW, the S&P, the Nasdq , the SOX, the XNG and the OSX have all literally tanked & been decimated... and "that" was what you guys are hanging your hat on - for having allegedly "traded" that market collapse profitiably... versus "our" having exited & shorted Nat Gas - literally at the peak of the XNG & the Gas Story; exited the OSX as early as Sept 2000 and also having literally singlehandedly sounded the "Final Exit" alarm for the OSX the very week (June 5th) it collapsed and fell non-stop from the 120's to 58 (I've linked the scores of Yahoo RIG thread posts from that infamous week of June 5th).
So "we" - the Early Bears - who were realistic profit takers at the peak of thread sentiment & who dared go short well before "you" guys followed (key concept there (vbg)- "we" are to believe that "YOU" guys somehow managed to trade that 2400 point NAZ collapse profitably and that "YOU" who were the Perma-Bulls all thru the Nat Gas mania and who STILL were pounding the table on the FUNDAMENTALS late this Spring & into June on the OSX .... YOU guys out-traded & out-sector rotated - "us" ... we who called the Nat Gas mania for what it was... a "mania" - a "too perfect storm"... we who used YOU as THE contrarian indicator - time & time again... WE who sector rotated to GOLD - during the single cheapest 90 day window in gold stock history & who rode a 100% HUI sector index move... "WE" were wrong & YOU are now right ?
TALK ABOUT REVISIONISM !?!?!?
...and chihuahua's are really BIG DOGS right ?
Kodiak... just like most lawyers; we can all ways tell when you are lying:
- when your lips are moving.
PS:
... in the spirit of your continual "reaction to" (versus anticipation of)and resulting whipsaw's... where do you guys see the Oilpatch now ?
I saw your OSX 48 bottom call on Yahoo.
Are you guys going to miss another HUGE trading bounce like you did on "THE TURN" (roflmao) ?
... you're not going to get & stay too bearish at the bottom - again; after being and staying too bullish for too long at the tops are you (lol~) ?
Don't forget to hedge/straddle your calls - daBum ususally does a good job at that...
So what is it Chihuahua's... where's the Oilpatch going here ?
Nat Gas plays ? Drillers, or Service ? The Majors ? Refiners ? - what's the subsector call here ?
Short, or long ?
Hold/Straddle... freeze like Deer in headlights ?
Crude/Nat Gas Prices ?
$14 Oil, or $30 ?
Nat Gas going to $1.80ish this winter, or $5 ?
Is the market correctly calling an early 2002 economic recovery; or is this just a DCB rally in a still intact Bear market ?
...make a call
PS: how's that Enron doing today (VBG)?
;) |
