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Pastimes : Starbucks SBUX

SBUX 88.88

+0.8%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: SONAR who wrote (91)	9/3/1996 10:12:00 PM
From: Sturgeon	of 148

Henry, I have no position in SBUX currently, neither long, nor short. But I intend to short SBUX at sometime in the future. My intentions in posting info has been to understand the psychology of SBUX investors, something that will be important when I go short. I won't be making many more posts on this thread. I have made my point. I have discovered that it doesn't really matter how much you explain the negative side of something to people with dollar signs in their eyes. They will never believe you. Later on they will probably ask me why I didn't warn them! As for my having caused you to "lose money", I don't feel responsible. You didn't acctually lose anything did you? And I never asked anybody to take me on faith. I simply pointed out certain undeniable FACTS. The idea was for you to think about it and reach your own conclusions. The franchising versus company ownership issue does not in the slightest disprove my point that SBUX is a pyramid. You have not understood what I have been saying. Company ownership of stores provides much greater opportunity to run a pyramid scheme. As for Gloria's idea that nobody would want to franchise from Starbucks because the profits are too low. That might be true, but I don't know. Here's a final prediction for you Henry. I can say with absolute certainty two things. One, SBUX will have a sickening collapse one day, perhaps as much as 80% or more. Two, no matter how far away the collapse is from now, ultimately more SBUX investors will lose money than gain. I can say these things with certainty because that is how all pyramid schemes work. They are a transfer payment from late investors to early investors. Because of the nature of exponential growth there will always be far more "late" investors than "early" ones. Write these predictions down and look at them again in the future. They will happen. It's a certainty.

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