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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.74

+1.8%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (9495)	4/18/2003 11:42:27 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) of 95487

RtS, I think you need to be careful to not use last year as a guide for this year. Last year at this time, we were still reeling from 9/11, Enron/Wcom/Etc., Israel/Palestine seemed to be escalating (Jenin...), OBL+terrorism, many were convinced that the "housing bubble" was about to collapse, and other issues were weighing heavy on the market. A lot of the stocks we follow here were substantially higher and their prospect weren't a lot rosier than we're seeing today. I'm not suggesting throwing caution to the wind at this juncture but I have a hard time thinking that we'll see a repeat of last year's market, where the doom and gloom brought us to extremes by Oct. While the business outlook isn't that great, a majority of the fat has been trimmed and continues to be addressed as companies increasingly focus on profitability and (potential) growth. Especially with the NASDAQ, I find it hard to believe we will see a repeat of last spring/summer/fall where we went from 1600 to 1100. Not that it can't happen but I think this type of scenario is too bearish given the current circumstances. mh

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