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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (9502)	4/18/2003 12:38:46 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95531

Michael, you reasoning is rational enough but be careful of the foundation on which it is laid. All of your reasoning may already be largely priced into the market because it is so obviously true. I'm worried about that. Any disappointment and the market goes down more. Much of the currently booked semiconductor orders could simply have been more based on hopes for an economic recovery once this war started than an actual recovery. Have we ever got to the valuation levels seen in 1998 for SOX components much less the valuation levels seen at previous bear market bottoms for the S&P 500 and DJIA? Have we truly priced in the effect that expensing options will have on these companies? Has the bubble truly been completely deflated or is the market still overly optimistic. Time will tell. I'm not sure the market cannot run higher. That's why I have only one small short position and everything else in cash. RtS

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