Poll Data Delaying Constitutional Restoration?
Power Line
Reader Sean Rushton pointed out this disquieting article in The Hill:
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Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), a leading advocate of the "nuclear option" to end the Democrats' filibuster of judicial nominees, is privately arguing for a delay in the face of adverse internal party polls.
Details of the polling numbers remain under wraps, but Santorum and other Senate sources concede that, while a majority of Americans oppose the filibuster, the figures show that most also accept the Democratic message that Republicans are trying to destroy the tradition of debate in the Senate.
The Republicans are keeping the "nuclear" poll numbers secret, whereas they have often in the past been keen to release internal survey results that favor the party. David Winston, head of the Winston Group, which conducts Senate GOP polls, did return phone calls seeking comment.
Confirming public disquiet over the "nuclear" or "constitutional" option, Santorum said, "Our polling shows that." But, he added, public thinking had been muddied by what he called false Democratic arguments that checks and balances were being eroded.
Many Republicans and conservative activists had thought the Senate GOP leadership would trigger the tactic next week to end the judicial filibuster. The nominees considered most appropriate for such a historic procedural maneuver, Priscilla Owen and Janice Rogers Brown, are expected to be discharged from the Judiciary Committee later this week.
Conservative activists said they received word last week to ramp up their communication efforts on the constitutional option with the goal of having their activity peak next week, before the May recess.
But GOP aides said Santorum has made known to the leadership reasons for why Republicans should not move forward on the nuclear or constitutional option.
"He was concerned that too many things are competing in the same area and you couldn't get a clean shot at it," a GOP aide said. The aide cited the "fallout" from congressional Republicans' intervening in a Florida court's decision to remove Terri Schiavo's feeding tube and the subsequent controversy caused by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's (R-Texas) statement that "the time will come for the men responsible for this to answer for their behavior."
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The GOP's Senate leadership knows a lot more about conditions in that body than we do, so it's hard to second-guess their strategy. To the extent that the delay is based on poll numbers, however, I would offer this comment: Because of their control over the news media, the Democrats can often sway poll data over the short term. They have to pick their spots, but if they concentrate their fire on a particular issue, or a particular nominee, the media will fall into line and, temporarily at least, sway public opinion. But it is hard to see how that justifies backtracking on the Constitutional option, or how a delay in the vote will be helpful.
The next election is a year and a half away. If the Republicans in the Senate aren't willing to buck the polls now, when will they be? And how can anyone think that a delay in pursuing the Constitutional option will cause the poll numbers to turn around? It won't. It will merely be perceived as blood in the water that causes the Democratic/media attacks to intensify.
Success breeds success, and weakness breeds more weakness. The Republicans have been voted into the majority. The greatest danger to them is not doing something that is temporarily unpopular; the greatest danger is being perceived as too weak to enact their agenda. That danger, I am afraid, is upon us.
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