Brendan,
I'm pointing out that the fundamentals remain, long-term, unaffected by this, and extremely bullish; and even short/medium-term the effect on fundamentals is nothing like the drop in share price. And while the day-by-day volatility is fascinating, it's pretty safe to ignore it and even note its irrationality if one is a buy-and-hold long-termer. And if one does take such an approach, as the world's most successful investors recommend, then this irrational collapse represents arguably as great an opportunity over the next 15 months as 96's collapse represented then, and the opportunity gets less arguable as one increases the quantity of months.
I agree that we should look back at AMAT's lows last year -- it's important to learn from them, even if what we learn is that the market can be very short-sighted at times. That's still relevant, in that while as a long-termer I'll be successful enough just holding AMAT for years, (1) this tells me when to buy, and (2) I could be more effective if I could better anticipate when the market is likely next to panic, to back out and then move back in. Right now, I don't consider myself skilled enough to do that (and I know most people who do, aren't).
--John |
