RECOVERY BEGAN LAST NOVEMBER (NEWS)
RECESSION MAY BE OVER
Last Updated: Feb. 22, 2002 at 7:14:45 a.m.
WASHINGTON - The recession, shaping up as one of the shortest and mildest on record could already be over economists say.
The National Association for Business Economics said that 60 percent of the economists on its forecasting panel believe the economy turned the corner and is growing.
``America's longest expansion has been followed by one of the shortest recessions on record,'' said NABE President Harvey Rosenblum, director of economic research at the Dallas Federal Reserve bank.
The NABE's newest forecast put economic growth at 1.5 percent this year and stronger 3.8 percent in 2003.
The Conference Board reported Thursday that Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a key gauge of future activity shot up 0.6 percent in January its fourth consecutive monthly increase.
``The strong signal from the indicators is that the recession is ending and that the recovery could be more vigorous than earlier anticipated,'' said Ken Goldstein, a senior economist with the New York-based industry group that issues the index.
The financial markets were not impressed.
While the leading index was flashing rebound another report Thursday showed that that last year's slowdown may not have been as severe. The Commerce Department reported that the nation's trade deficit narrowed by 11.4 percent in December.
This unexpectedly large improvement sent economists scurrying to upwardly revise their estimates for overall economic activity in the fourth quarter. Many said the gross domestic product may have risen by 1 percent in the October-December quarter.
Kevin Hassett, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, said the statistics will show that the recession actually ended in November. |
