O/T: nspolar... you seem to be baseball fan ?
First, let me preface my comments with a small clarification.
Many of you here on SI have long said that I am a compassionateless, arrogant bastard.
...I assure you that you have the "compassionateless" part of the equation - wrong.
On that note - Mr. nspolar:
...you seem to have quite the issue with - "guru status".
Given this rather incoherent, F-Word laden, rambling and drunken rant done at 2 a.m. on a Saturday night while looking into the abyss of a Whiskey Bottle...it seems that your issue with so-called "guru's" is not the only issue you have:
Message 21754357
Yip, yip, yap, yap ...little dog deja vu all over again ~
Not unlike some of it's larger brethren (which suffer from their own genetic challenges such as hip dysplasia) the hairless, shivering, always yapping, nerve-frazzled chihuahua breed - also has it's own genetic deficiencies...the foremost of which is - "little dog" syndrome.
Now personally, I have always been fond of "big dogs."
Big Dogs run fast, jump high and bite hard.
They rule the porch... versus, hiding under it.
I have never been fond of little dogs.... especially the "chihuahua."
Chihuahua's seem to only come out from under the porch and do all of their yipping... only when the "big dogs" are gone, or they know they will not be returning for some time.
Often they will display their greatest courage only when they know the "big dogs" are tethered by a chain - limiting their reach, or if they are safely secure behind a fence.
...well for now, that fence is down.
I had mentioned many, many times over the summer and privately to a few SI posters that I would no longer be able to continue posting on SI after mid-September/October (to a few - I explained why...more on that in coming posts.)
ie:
mid-August Post # 451.
Message 21626055
[ “After September 15th, the time that I will have and ultimately my involvement on SI will be limited and to a degree - restricted...but, I still plan to keep my original idea for this thread intact - that being discussing the "macro" Trends that affect the Market, as well as individual sectors and long/short stock idea's.”]
Quite amusingly... for those who seemingly not only do not "have" a life, but who also quite apparently have never "had" one either.... this entire SI "guru" & "book mark"... "make a call" thing seems to be - their entire life (that and a Whiskey Bottle for a few others).
To that subject - I think the recent featured article about Silicon Investor in Stocks & Commodities Magazine partially addressed the seeming decline in functional brain matter on SI.
Message 21799350
Quoting from the article in Stocks & Commodities Magaine:
"...Silicon Investor is still in transition from what it was during the boom-time years.... and should Silicon Investor ever regain anything close to it's old 1990's-era glory, I don't doubt there will be more than one message-board poster who will swear he or she knew SI would be "back" all along"
Sadly, the Magazine hit the nail on the head.....as the sun has clearly set on SI and the reason is rather simple.
As the Web has transitioned...the free and cheap Business Model has retained little value. What is either free, or cheap and of actionable material of reasonable quality - is usally also a part of a two-step marketing process to sell you something...or, as in the case of SI - has become the gathering place of the mindless who enjoy blowing smoke up each others asses while swapping fish stories with one another in various Coffe-Klatch Forums.
Some of the free stock newsletters like the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpower from the Agora Publishing Group, or John Mauldin's letter, Martin Weiss's newsletter and certainly all the Perambullian Gold Rags that are pumped on Gold-Eagle and Kitco...exist to - "sell you something"...
On a sidenote... even though those particular newsletters do have some very sharp market minds behind them... they are not in the business of selling stockmarket advice, or timing.
The best of them (Agora and Bill Bonner & Co.) actually know that they don't even really have to "sell" you anything.
...think about that for a moment.
This is a functional brainmatter test.
Do not read any further down this post - please stop reading this and turn away from your computer monitor and think about what I just said...re:
They are selling you something - by not really even having to "sell".
Think about that for 90 seconds.
If you ever really wondered if you have what it takes - to perform at the highest levels of trading, or in business... you will "get" what I am referring to.... if you don't "get" the answer ... you are a linear thinker and your mind needs to be retrained ...and it may be of value to you, to stay tuned for what is to come in my posts over the next week.
Now, stop reading and turn away from your Computer Monitor and ask yourself this question:
"How are they selling me... without really "selling me" ?
Stop.
I said - STOP READING.
90 seconds.... you will either "get it" within 90 seconds - or, you won't and further time won't matter.... just 90 seconds.
Okay................................... test over.
The Answer is really rather simple:
The writers of these so called investment and stock newsletters are not in the business to make you money, or to make accurate calls on the stock market.
Actually, they will always make money - even if their calls are 100% wrong....and they will still continue to "sell" you their services over and over and over and over again... without even having to "sell" you based on any right, or wrong/profitable, or unprofitable; accurate, or inaccurate performance criteria.
Do you know why that is ...and how they do it ?
Because they do not have to "sell" you on anything.
They aren't even "selling."
All they are doing - is channeling demand.
Your demand... to be told what you want to hear.
The single easiest sale in the world... is telling people what they want to hear.
The genius and the incredible profitability in that... is that the vast majority of you will continue to empty your pockets to them - even when are wrong and when their advice is highly unprofitable....or more profit at considerably less risk - exits elsewhere.
For the Agora's and the Weiss Research's of the world... you are what is known as a "starving crowd."
...I won't take the time to get into that here - perhaps latter - as that in and of itself - is an entire trading concept.
Do you know that the vast majority of these newsletters are written by what is called a "copywriter" verus an actual Trader, or Market Professional ?
Let me tell you how it works...
Someone like Martin Weiss, or Bill Bonner at Agora, or the folks at Phillips Publishing who send you all of those email blasts from Toby Smith,or Louis Navallier... have very talented professional advertising copywriters... craft those newsletters.
What they do is sit down with the principle that is issuing the newsletter - ie: a Louis Navallier, or Toby Smith, or Martin Weiss... and they get the pertinent fundamental market commentary from the actual market professional...and then they take it ...and peform "magic".
What that magic is... is selling - without selling; but rather by channeling demand.
- your demand.
- to be told what you want to hear.
...and yes, every 25 years of so (in the case of Goldbugs)you can actually make money by following thier advice. But, as always... making money and keeping money - are two different concepts (that as well, is yet another subject).
What these very skilled copywriters do... is to sit down with a Martin Weiss, or a Louis Navalier and ask them about - "you".
They want to know - what keeps you up at night ?
- what makes you tick ?
- what are your hot buttons.
- what is the conversation that already exists in your mind.
- what do you believe (conspiracy theories, or reality - it matters not whether it is true, or accurate... only that you "want" to believe).
- their job is not to sell you what you "need" - but, rather what you "want".
...and they do one helluva job in doing just that.
What they have done... is to sell you that this - is actually something to be celebrating about (more on this later).
finance.yahoo.com
Although, for those that understand exactly what the "job" is... it is not really a difficult job....rather like giving a free sample and then selling crack to a junkie after they are hooked.
...but, I have digressed.
More on the psychology of trading later...back to the housecleaning:
nspolar...
Your rather incoherrent post at 2 a.m. in the morning back on the first weekend of October was rather sad. If I had wanted... I could have popped up and pointed out that from the day of your post (where the HUI closed at 250 that Friday, September 30th... it cratered the very next trading day...for 2 straight weeks, collapsing 30 points down to HUI 220 on Oct. 19th.
In the Martial Arts... there is actually a style called - Drunken Monkey...a very interesting style of Kung Fu. Fascinating to watch and highly effective... but, I would humbly suggest that "Drunken Elliot" is not a particulary effective "style" of TA... given the timing of that call.
Your "courage" at 2 a.m. in the morning on that first Saturday in October was rather obviously found at the bottom of a Whiskey Bottle... now, I see that you've once again found a new dose of courage...this time in the HUI finally getting back to flat and even.
Good for you.
I have never been intolerant of intelligent discourse and I think I have given you more than ample time to try to make an intelligent case for whatever point it is that you are trying to make.
But, other than displaying only the most deplorable characteristic's of the chihuahua herd, as well as failing to make any worthwhile point of value in the discussion of making profits... you have displayed an even more visible, very clear and present human failing.
To that note... I will finally get to my original point about Baseball:
If you are not just a casual fan, but are actually a student of the game - you will be familiar with one of the great Hall of Famers - Hack Wilson.
Hack Wilson still holds the Major League RBI record at 191 from his season with the Chicago Cubs back in 1930.
...a truly amazing feat - given what has taken place with both the game and athletes & human performance over the last few decades. In fact, no modern day player has surpassed the 130 & 131 RBI's posted by Albert Pujols and the late Ken Camminiti (another lesson here for you nspolar...Camminitti's dead).
Sadly, Hack Wilson was not only known for his hitting prowress...but, also for his drinking.
One day Hack while drinking with his fellow players, was confronted by the Cub's manager.
The manger reached across the table and picked up Hack's drink and pulled something out of his pocket and dropped it in the glass of Whiskey.
... he dropped a worm into the glass.
Hack was stunned... as was everyone around the table.
Everyone was mesmerized by what the Manager had done...and they all stood speechless and slack-jawed looking at the worm swimming around in Hack's glass of Whiskey.
...but, within about 20 seconds - the worm stopped swimming and died.
The Manager then looked up and said to Hack:
"Hack... now what does that tell you ?"
Hack Wilson without batting an eye - looked up and said:
"Skip, it tells me that if I keep drinking Whiskey - I'll never get worms" ... and he reached over and picked up the glass of Whiskey and belted it down.
... there is more to that story...but, perhaps it will make a point... maybe it won't.
But, as I mentioned... I sadly, must attend to a little Housecleaning, so Mr. nspolar... you must be banished to the dog pound ... where you can join the other badly behaved chihuahua's who have little to offer - other than mindless yips and yaps...good luck my little friend...maybe you'll learn something from that Baseball Story about Hack Wilson... maybe you won't...
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