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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: thesilenttype who wrote (9553)11/30/2001 10:59:45 AM
From: Sully-   of 99280
 
Intel (INTC) 31.90 -0.41 : Dan Niles has been pretty bearish on the chip giant for some time now. In mid-January, he downgraded the stock when it was trading right about where it is now. He has made his share of pretty negative comments on the stock, so anything viewed as a positive from him would be a strong catalyst. This morning, he is increasing his Q4 EPS from $0.08 to $0.10 and revenue from $6.6 bln to $6.8 bln. FY02 EPS goes from $0.55 to $0.62 based almost solely on higher selling prices....So is this a change of heart by Niles? No, he continues to recommend selling into the earnings update on Dec 6 even though he expects Intel to raise its Q4 revs guidance to the high-end of their prior range of $6.2-$6.8 bln and increase the gross margin to 48% from 47%....The lingering concern for the firm is that there is still a fairly large disparity between talking to Intel and talking to Dell (DELL)....Briefing.com has been uninspired by Intel for a while as it has been in a fierce price battle with AMD, a less than enthusiastic reception by the public to Windows XP and general weakness in the economy. There have been reports that XP has been selling above plan, but we think it's still a bit premature to forecast the holiday shopping season. The stock has run 70% off its Sep low, partly in anticipation of the mid-qtr update. A U shaped recovery is looking more realistic than the V shaped semiconductor recovery some are expecting. At a forward multiple of 56x, the stock is expensive at current levels. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com
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