Iran: CFR Seminar on US policy options
By It's MY blog too!
cfr.org
The Council on Foreign Relations has just published the seminar transcript for Transition 2005: U.S. Policy Toward Iran, held in DC on Jan 12, 2005. The panel is comprised of some serious thinkers who take on the hard questions, resulting in very useful and informed debate on the policy options.
Speaker: Kenneth M. Pollack, senior fellow and director of research, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, The Brookings Institution; author, "The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran and America"
Speaker: Mark Palmer, president and chief executive officer, Capital Development Company; member, Committee on the Present Danger
Speaker: David Kay, senior research fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Presider: Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies, Council on Foreign Relations
E.g., in a discussion on support for the Iranian opposition, David Kay tackles the nuclear clock outpacing the regime-change clock:
KAY: Yeah, just a quick point, Ray. I think, Ray, when you talk about opposition groups, you have to realize--Ken said one thing that I strongly agree to and think you ought to keep in the forefront of your mind. There really are two clocks. There is a clock of regime change and there is a nuclear weapons program clock. The regime change, under any condition I can imagine, is a very slow-ticking clock. The nuclear weapons program clock is a very rapidly evolving clock. The focus of attention needs to be on: are there steps we can take that will defer the success of a nuclear weapons program in Iran? And the goal of success for the administration ought not to be the elimination of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. That's not going to happen at this stage. It is that deferral, delay so that the regime change clock has a chance to catch up...
Later, in the realistic context of revived growth in nuclear power worldwide, David Kay comments on a proposal to offer to Iran a supply of enriched uranium:
KAY: Well, let me answer the question, but let me first say I think it would be a huge mistake to take the military option off the table. I think one of the difficulties in negotiating with the Europeans in getting a common framework is they will never agree to the military option--and yet we have to maintain it if we are to have any hope. Look, I think there is a potential of a yes-able deal with the Iranians in the nuclear issue. As much as some people in this room may not like it, there's going to be a renaissance of nuclear energy, or we're going to be floating--like California.
The nuclear industry is coming back. This is the point: instead of telling the Iranians, "You shouldn't have nuclear power, you've got gas, and you should just use that for your energy," we should say to the Iranians, and I think we should say it to some other countries as well, "There is going to be a renaissance, we realize there's a role for nuclear energy. The dangerous part of this for all of us is the enrichment area, and we're proposing the creation of regional enrichment centers, in which you participate in the management." I think the one for Iran ought to be in Russia... |
