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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: cfimx who wrote (9582)1/9/2000 7:41:00 PM
From: LauA  Read Replies (1) of 78746
 
Twister - re: CTO; I doubt that Buffett has flipped it. If you calculate his ownership in CTO from his ownership in Baker, Fentress, you will see that according to his filings last fall, he owns 100,000 more shares than the calculation indicates. I took this to mean that he had independently bought that much extra CTO. These REIT filings are for his personal holdings, not BRKa. I don't believe he has that 18 month deal with the SEC to keep secret personal ownership. If he flipped, he'd have to report in a timely fashion.

I also agree with Mike Burry that Net-Nets are a statistical phenomenon where gains occur in aggregate, offsetting losers. Individually, it's a crap shoot. When I buy those and January Effect stocks, I always refer to them as a wastebasketful. Most have significant problems to be priced the way they are. The buyout arbitrage stuff is the same. Not all will work out.

There was a time many years ago when Wells Fargo published a list of stocks in the S+P 500 that were considered to be below investment grade. Someone constructed a "not in Wells Fargo" portfolio - an equal dollar investment in ALL of these stocks, and found that it outperformed the S+P every year. What happened was that most stock prices stayed the same. A few went bankrupt. One or two recovered to become 10 baggers. These occasional winners provided the entire profit. It appeared impossible to a priori decide which ones would do the big turnaround. So you had to fill up the whole wastebasket.

Lau
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