Geezz Norm...
Being a little defensive aren't we?? Actually, what you are saying equally applies. Politics are complex mechanisms and the best laid plans of muftis and imams can be laid low by a college student with a bullhorn and a following. They have followed the Khatami regime to some extent, but they acknowledge that his support base has been rather limited, but seems to be growing, one opinion being that Khatami can be "controlled" by the fundamentalists.
But this Analyst firm has been following Iran's political maneuvers for some time and has noticed the increase in diplomatic visitations between Iran and other Arab nations. This is remarkable in that Iranians are Persians, and not Arabs, there being little love lost historically between the two, and is indicative of Iran's diplomatic moves to restore relations severed by the Arab war against Iran, via their proxy, Iraq. (Let's not forget that Hussein invaded Kuwait, angered by their reluctance to assist in rebuilding his economy after fighting 8 years of war at the bidding of these Arab Kingdoms).
But I think they hit it on the head vis-a-vis the US and Iran. The US has not been able to exhibit an ability to control events in the Persian Gulf, while at the same time drawing considerable fire for sailing our fleets there. Khatami has been our one hope for restoration of relations and lessening of tensions. We have found more success from our soccer and wrestling diplomacy than we have from direct efforts.
Iran's extremists (guess you could call them their "republicans" :0) have been engaged in rounds of terrorism for the past 20 years and there must be a sense of moderation exhibited before we should acknowledge Iran's rightful role in mid-east security. The fact that they are such a populous nation should give pause to anyone seeking to empower the current extremist regime. That being said, we all know that the gov't is distinct from the educated business class and that not all Iranians are looking for Jihad and martyrdom. (let's don't forget the basis for Iran-Contra, US hostages held in Lebanon by Iranian backed guerilla groups)
So Norm, I don't really disagree with you, but both of us know there are considerable variables to factor into this equation and there is no way a short essay can include all facets. But I agree with this firm in their analysis that Khatami's hold on office is fragile, that there is a schizophrenic domestic/foreign policy out of Iran with the fundamentalists still holding primary power, but Khatami showing growing strength of will and power.
Take care....
Regards,
Ron |
