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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (9610)	12/19/1999 4:59:00 PM
From: fuzzymath	Read Replies (1) of 18928

Contrarian indicators are something I've dabbled with, but I don't have any that I'm using right now. Certainly there is a long-term momentum that propels the economy, which in turn propels the stock market. Since we're always advancing in technology and productivity, the long-term direction is up. That's my argument against any end-of-the-world bear theories (like the DJIA will go swirling down to 100 or something). That could only happen if there was such a catastrophe that all human progress was ended. Certainly there are such scenarios: the world is destroyed by a nuclear war, for example. But in such scenarios having your money in a bank won't help either. The currency itself might be worthless... Anyway, this is an interesting forum. Wall Street Journal on Friday talked about what concerns me a lot: the divergence between the soaring NASDAQ, flat broad market, and tumbling bonds. I really do begin to feel the first twinges of a massive hangover that's going to hit us all at some impossible to predict future period. NASDAQ up 70% as long-term bond rates rise 25% in 1999. They say that higher rates don't affect the high-tech NASDAQ companies. But here's my question: do higher rates affect their customers? The flat broad market would suggest the answer is Yes. So will all these highly anticipated future profits actually happen? Remember the a song from a few years back: "Things that make you go 'Hmmm...'"? What's happening right now makes me go "Hmmm..." But, for the moment (and most likely through January) I'm 100% invested in the NASDAQ clone FDEGX. Kevin

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