Cohu, Inc. (COHU) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)

COHU 30.85

+6.6%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: KLINVESTOR who wrote (961)	9/26/1998 2:42:00 PM
From: robert b furman	of 7840

I once had a conversation with a Daymarc employee.He in almost a reverent tone spoke of Micron as having no-debt.In fact - I think they have some, but not much in a relative way.This greatly contrasts with the S. Korean cos.. A business model that has no debt vs. a competitor that has debt is a long term winner, when margins are negative or thin.I think this is the ultimate plus for Micron and a long term minus for the capital equipment manufacturers(like asec.).Since some of the buyers will be removed for a longer time period S.Korea /Taiwan. This is also a great plus for Cohu.Their customer base is almost all domestic / healthy /capitalized companies. I.E. INTEL,MICRON,MOTOROLA ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES etc. . As these companies regain pricing they will maintain a higher margin and retool quicker with the more efficient new equipment.I believe the price of Cohu will reflect this turn well before we "investors" are informed by the medias.If we are lucky future orders backlog will give a solid clue , but the price could turn much higher and sooner than a backlog announcement (done qtrly) could be made. It is encouraging to see that in Investors Business Daily the industry group "Elec-Semiconductor Equip is a boldface ( % winner) for the day .It has moved up from its recent oh to regular position of 195-197 to 182.I have watched this evolution evolve twice in my life and it doesn't provide timing but it does reinforce an overall perspective. Also encouraging is T.C. WORDENS industry group WG400 which has reversed off a bottom made on 09/01/98.It has gone up to and just below its 200 day moving average.The overall 200 day moving average is down but flattening out. Speaking of being optimistic - I sure hope Cohu has bottomed without that double bottom. Watching Amat and Nvls for subtle signs for that. July of 1996 IBM and INTC provided the leadership clue for tech stocks on 07/25/96.Amat and Nvls both broke out on sept 12 1996(34 trade days later)Cohu broke out nov 12 (44 trade days later from 09/12/96).This year IBM and INTC provided leadership on 06/23/98 and a double bottom reversal on 09/02/98.Forecasting Amat and Nvls to show strength around(plus 34 trade days from 09/02/98 puts there reversal in 10/20/98 and Cohu's reversal (44days later from 10/20/98 )would occur on 12/22/98. Hey - Merry Christmas! I'm not real sure there will be any kind of a breakout just before the sleepy tax selling time around X-mas.Oh well spent so much time goofing around with a calendar thought I'd show you the analysis anyhow. Cohu's current price action is so similar to the july - nov 1996 action it is like Deja Vu.If that holds true Cohu will revisit 14 with a diminished backlog announcement this quarter. Then we should shake out the last of the weak owners and we've got a tiger by the tail its plain to see - from there UP ! The most persuasive argument for not having a double bottom is that Time segmented volume has become positive as it did in november 12 1996 and price has just about pierced up thru its 50 moving average(19) . Actually did move thru it thursday(intraday). Last but not least the most powerful rule in any market - The Law of Supply and Demand. Somebody was buying friday in quantities that just make me jealous - ah but to buy another 40,000 just before the fast price markup stage. A league I alas can not play in .So I,m gunna sit and bite my fingernails and repeat HOLD WITH CONFIDENCE,as I read all the bears on the Big Kahuna thread. :-) The Winner is the one who buys the most at the lowest price ! BWDIK Bob

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