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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 58.08+0.9%Dec 11 3:59 PM EST
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To: Icebrg who wrote (9618)12/1/2003 3:12:21 PM
From: rkrw  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
<<With regard to a longer-acting chiral version of Cephalon, I am not sure that it will be perceived as an advantage to everyone. There may well be people who don't want to stay awake "for ever".>>

I hear you and realize you're exaggerating about the duration :-) The longer duration is modest (2 hours?). At the cowen conference last March during a sleep panel one question was whether the longer duration would be enough of a differentiator. Crowd was nearly all in the no camp (as was I). The physician sleep expert panelists all were optimistic. I think with a sufficient lead time (2 years?) and good marketing they'll be able to surprise. My worry would be the lead time.

<<Depending on reimbursement issues a less expensive twice a day drug may well be seen as giving more value for the money than a more expensive once a day variant.>>

Probably not many generic twice daily drugs exist that don't give better value than the once daily branded, yet branded's manage to take the vast majority of sales every time.

Regarding cima, I think it was a good acquisition. All cash deal, cima is profitable, many low risk product possibilities, fast dissolve fentanly fits into ceph's pain area. We'll see.

Will be interesting to see how many generic co's develop actiq. I agree sales attract interest, but it's not as easy as mfg pill, est bioequivalence, use existing mfg lines (I think) and distribute through est channels. It will take more expertise than the normal generic co has imo. Just the type of project that Barr Labs often takes on(high barrier).
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