I wonder if anyone will bother to go back a few weeks and analyze which pundits were right, and which ones were wrong in their predictions of Arnold. I seem to remember reading a lot of supposedly politically astute people, predicting he would falter and not measure up in the end. I still think he will prove them all wrong and win.
I also believe, whether you agree with some of his political statements or not, Warren Buffet is a genious, and I can't wait to see what he turns up after analyzing California's books.
Right on Time
by Jill Stewart
With California hurtling toward a recall vote following a debate that seemingly everybody in the state watched, transfixed inhabitants of the Golden State finally got one of their biggest questions answered: They found out Wednesday night that Arnold Schwarzenegger can more or less hold his own on wonkish policy issues, such as how to provide health care to poor children and whether local government should be given more power over tax revenues. Schwarzenegger was, of course, hardly riveting. But he waded into substantive topics and charmed many in the audience when, in response to Arianna Huffington's strategy of gunning for him, he answered every attack with cheerily delivered quips and mini-lectures. Back in her Cambridge days, Arianna was a debate queen. But on Wednesday, Schwarzenegger was clearly having more fun.
But perhaps the even more encouraging recent development for Schwarzenegger is that conservatives seem to be gradually rallying to his cause. With the hard-right State Senator Tom McClintock still in the race--and with the Republican base having spent much of the race eyeing the moderate actor-turned-politician with suspicsion--that's potentially even more important to Schwarzenegger's recall chances than the reassurances many moderates took away from his debate performance.
The most obvious sign that Schwarzenegger is starting to consolidate conservative support came Thursday when former recall rival (and last year's Republican gubernatorial nominee) Bill Simon endorsed the erstwhile action hero. And that wasn't the only high-profile conservative endorsement to come Schwarzenegger's way of late. The staunchly conservative umbrella organization for the state's GOP county committee chairmen also endorsed Arnold Thursday, and, earlier in the week, several past state GOP chairs--including conservative Shawn Steel--did the same. Sources say Schwarzenegger will be endorsed today by U.S. Congressman Darrell Issa, who helped underwrite the gathering of petition signatures for the recall.
The endorsements show how far Schwarzenegger has dragged the party in a few short weeks. There's simply no way these very conservative leaders would have dreamed, two months ago, of endorsing a pro-environment, pro-choice candidate, known in their circles as a RINO (Republican in Name Only). Then again, Schwarzenegger has lots of people acting odd these days. The media, for example, are not portraying his endorsements by conservatives as black marks--the usual reaction by California reporters--but instead as evidence of Schwarzenegger's maturity. Nobody knows if Arnold is capable of causing a sea-change or just a cosmetic change in his party. But it's damn interesting to watch.
Wednesday's debate also revealed something interesting--and potentially crucial--about the relationship between Schwarzenegger and McClintock: The two rivals actually like one another. Reporters were so busy delving into the irrelevancies of whether Arianna Huffington was clever or just bitchy that they nearly overlooked the obvious cordiality between McClintock and Schwarzenegger during and after the debate.
True, McClintock has taken potshots at Schwarzenegger. And Schwarzenegger, for his part, is running an ad criticizing those who take money from multimillionaire Indian tribes (McClintock took heaps). But it's all been pretty tame. Schwarzenegger reiterates that he will not pressure McClintock to get out of the race. And, though the flinty, stubborn, far-right state senator seems unlikely to drop out, lately McClintock has pointedly not discouraged talk about how his supporters might abandon him and vote for Arnold to ensure a GOP win.
One theory gaining prominence on the right is that McClintock should stick around because he'll bring conservatives to the polls. And once they make a proper showing to family and friends, the thinking goes, many will step inside the booth and vote for Schwarzenegger. That just might work. With Schwarzenegger polling at 26 percent and McClintock at 14, 40 percent of Californians apparently plan to vote Republican--more than enough to put Arnold over the top. In contrast, Bustamante, the only major Democrat, is polling at around 28 percent---a sad showing given that California has about 44 percent Democratic voter registration.
Many voters are, of course, still undecided. But Bustamante seems determined to alienate this group by embracing sleazy fundraising, having taken millions from rich Indian tribes and huge unions, then trying to get around ethics rules against using such money for his campaign. For its part, Schwarzenegger's often disjointed campaign displayed perfect timing in launching its ads to address the issue of Callifornia's gambling tribes. But the ads may work too well. As the Wall Street Journal reports, tribes met a month ago to plan a "war" to defeat Schwarzenegger, prop up McClintock, and elect Bustamante. Schwarzenegger's recent ads probably only further galvanized that opposition. Add that to the persisting rumors that Gray Davis, a horrifically negative campaigner with millions of dollars, has cooked up an ugly onslaught to lay Schwarzenegger low, and the road to Sacramento could still get treacherous. Still, thanks to the increasing conservative warmth toward his campaign, the prospects of a Schwarzenegger recall victory loom ever larger.
tnr.com |
