Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Ilaine who wrote (96624)	4/19/2001 10:29:41 PM
From: JRI	of 436258

<Debt rises during contractions...> Totally counter-intuitive.....but I guess it means the economic cycle waves are pulled in both directions to make big waves (ups and downs)...and, I would argue, longer waves...than what would normally happen... I think there is a real underestimation of the length of this down-wave (L-shape)...I am a Stephen Roach-er on that......negative savings rates are going to take a long time to turn back positive... This summer, the psychology break (in consumer, into a spending mode) will be sharp, IMO

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