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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: jeffbas who wrote (9678)1/18/2000 9:42:00 AM
From: debrahaugen  Read Replies (1) of 78717
 
Sorry, I don't have any information on the selling.
I tend to attempt to analyze a company and set my buy price, and act accordingly, wherin a drop in the stock price allows me to buy my perceived value. Historically this has worked for me.
My best guess is that several competitors which were rumored to be attempting to produce a similar series of cameras, and when successful, the competitors would undercut the prices of Silent Witness.
Eventually, the competitors will of coursebe successful, and therefore, I assume that the profit margins of Silent Witness will decline by several percentage points to match the competition. Silent's margins have been increasing dramatically over the past few years, because of what I believe to be their superior top of the line product.
I expect Silent to come forth with an updated product line when this occurs. I noticed a press release of Silent Witness yesterday, about a superior cabling solution, so the competition may have just or be about to release their competitive product. Note that Silent won't release an updated product until the competition shows its hand, so that the competition can't immediately and cost effectively copy the Silent Witness product. That's what Silent has done for the last several years.
Also, the company's second quarter ending January, 2000, is traditionally its weakest quarter because of the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday period (sales to schools etc.).
Or someone could know something that I don't know...

Deb
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