Wireless Offers 'Massive Opportunity' - AvantGo CEO
By Michael Bartlett, Newsbytes
individual.com
BEVERLY HILLS, CALIFORNIA, U.S.A.
Mobile wireless computing holds so much promise,
that this year marks just the third time in the history
of computing that an opportunity this big has come
along.
That was the message from Felix Lin, founder and
CEO of AvantGo [NASDAQ:AVGO], a company
that provides mobile infrastructure, software and
services. He gave a keynote address this morning
on the final day of the IWireless World conference.
"I see wireless as the second coming of the
Internet," Lin said. "It will extend the reach of the
Internet beyond the desktop, to anyone with a
mobile device."
Lin said the history of computing shows that
technology "discontinuities" create massive new
opportunities. In 1965, mainframe computers - with
their large girth and need to be water-cooled -
defined computing technology for a generation. The
mainframe space was dominated by one company,
IBM [NYSE:IBM], he said.
In 1984, home computers that did not need to be
water-cooled emerged. With this technological
change, which Lin says was the second
discontinuity, hundreds of companies rushed in to
make hardware and software. Hundreds of
thousands of people bought PCs.
The third discontinuity began to occur in 1999,
when "highly distributed mobile wireless computing"
took shape.
"This is a massive opportunity," Lin said.
The Internet changed the way people do business,
he said. Companies spend a total of $100 billion
per year on corporate applications in an attempt to
increase productivity.
One of the biggest challenges facing wireless is
the existence of so many different devices,
operating systems and connections. Lin said this
"wireless dilemma" makes connecting services to
devices difficult.
Five years from now, when people look back at
what happened in the wireless space from 2001 to
2006, there will be three "great missed
expectations," according to Lin.
The first development that he expects to fall short
of the hype is broadband wireless. The coming of
"Third Generation," or "3G" mobile communications
systems has been ballyhooed for some time now,
but Lin is not impressed.
"Five years from now, people will see that
increased bandwidth was not enough. No one
wants to surf the Web from a wireless device.
People want streamlined access to personalized
information, and they want a 100 percent
connection. 3G does not address these things," he
said. "There still will be places where people
cannot get wireless connections, like in elevators
and subways. It has nothing to do with 3G, the
signals cannot penetrate concrete rebar."
Lin said people already are realizing that WAP, or
wireless application protocol, does not equal the
wireless Web. "There was an expectation that the
entire Internet is in the palm of one's hand, and
there is access to any information," he said.
"Instead, the WAP experience leaves a lot to be
desired."
Five years from now, WAP will be seen as a
handful of services via Internet protocols, suffering
from painfully slow input and output, he said.
"Wireless data is experiencing a Catch-22
situation similar to the early years of cable
television," said Lin. Twenty years ago, there were
no cable stations creating content because there
were no customers. But, there were no customers
because there was no content. Building WAP
infrastructure is like laying cable to a home. When
wireless data and wireless voice are combined into
one service, then wireless data will take off."
The third "great missed expectation" will be the
unexpected failure of mobile commerce
(m-commerce), predicted Lin. He said the popular
predictions of location-based coupons and
advertisements - for example, your wireless device
will beep with an ad when you walk by a particular
store in a mall - will come up dry.
"In retrospect, people will see that the successful
use of wireless technology will be service-specific,
personalized interaction. The best example I have
seen is flight delay notices from airlines that offer
immediate rebooking. Successful applications will
be ones that encourage customer loyalty."
Lin said m-commerce will be a small component of
"mCRM," or mobile customer relationship
management.
"Wireless is about bridging the old economy to the
new economy, and mCRM is about acquiring and
servicing customers," he said. "The challenge for
the old economy is to maximize existing
relationships. The new economy is focused on
maximizing relationships, but its challenge is to
acquire customers."
According to Lin, automakers - a bastion of the old
economy - spend millions of dollars each year on
production, sales and marketing, only to make a
profit of just $400 per vehicle. He said the industry
could use the addition of "telematics," which are
applications for automobiles, as a new economy
touch to boost revenues.
"If they put telematics or e-911 service in cars,
that would raise $6.4 billion in annual revenue," he
said. "These are information-based services that
have nothing to do with building cars."
Lin predicted that wireless soon will become
ubiquitous as companies realize its power in
boosting relationships with customers.
"The technology discontinuities will completely
change the rules of the game. Businesses will
develop applications that let marketing data
become useful information. These applications will
help companies acquire customers, build
relationships and monetize the relationship over
time."
More information on IWireless World is available
on the Web at iwirelessworld.com .
AvantGo is online at avantgo.com .
Reported by Newsbytes.com,
newsbytes.com . |
