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WHEN WILL COALITION FORCES LEAVE IRAQ? CAN WE SAY WHEN? [01/27 02:01 PM]
William Kristol, at a Brookings Institution panel discussion on Iraq:
I don't think announcing a withdrawal helps the Iraqis who are struggling to set up a viable democracy, and struggling very courageously in many cases. It may be the case that we can begin to draw down troops in a year. I rather think it would be. And it may be the case that the new Iraqi government at some point will ask us to leave either in whole or in part. I imagine that is likely to happen, too. But announcing a date simply tells the terrorists and the insurgents, I think, that they just have to hang on till this date and they have a chance to wreak more havoc. I think it dispirits our friends. I think an exit strategy, even announcing an exit strategy — well, let me put it this way: Focusing on an exit strategy rather than a victory strategy is the wrong thing to do at this point.
Kristol's a smart guy, but I think he's making a bit of an error here. The thing is, as much as the insurgents want to know when Coalition forces will leave... well, lots of ordinary Iraqis and lots of ordinary Americans are wondering when Coalition forces will leave, too.
Maybe the answer is to say, "Contingent on establishing stability and public safety, we're aiming to reduce our forces by one third this year, two thirds next year, and be down to our minimal long-term presence by 2007." But I think people both here in the U.S. and in Iraq deserve to know that American forces will leave, and that the date isn't theoretical.
UPDATE: Many readers, but not all, think spelling out when coalition forces are likely to leave would be a mistake.
Roger writes:
I have to agree with William Kristol. To declare an exit strategy would mean that if the schedule is not met the administration would be put on the defensive when it least useful to the US and the Iraqi people. Since the schedule would rely on assumptions that rely on events not under US control this would be a “self inflicted wound” on the part of the administration. Goals based on unknowns and relying on hopes rather than reality makes for poor results. That is where projects like the Boston “Big Dig” have come from.
Hopes and wishful thinking have their place but must be tempered with some modicum of reality. The present policies are more flexible both tactically and politically. If things go well on the ground troop withdrawal will follow.
John writes:
[A withdrawl schedule] will be portrayed as a victory by the forces of terror in Iraq and by the forces of defeatism here at home. Second, when the contingency doesn't hold (i.e., when the terrorists ramp up violence at the end of year 1), our failure to reduce troop levels will be portrayed as still more evidence that "Bush lied." Al Jazeera and the NY Times will say "see, we told you that America is an occupation force."
The way to convince the Iraqi people that we will leave and that we are not an occupation force is for freely elected Iraqi leaders to convince them that (a) the Americans will leave when asked to do so, (b) we are not asking them to do so yet Iraqi forces are not yet ready to ensure security, and (c) we definitely will ask them to leave when we feel that our security forces are sufficiently trained.
Doug writes:
Kristol is right and you are wrong. Over the next year (post election) Iraq will write a constitution, ratify it and have another election for their first constitutional government. The American people know this is the strategy and I think we need to be committed to help them through this process, even if not one troop comes home during the period. Once this is all done, we can begin to withdraw.
Naturally, if conditions permit, we can begin to withdraw earlier. Success is
key.
These guys bring up some good arguments. But Dave thinks there's nothing wrong with letting people know the Coalition depature is getting closer:
I think the administration has been very good at not being pushed into making predictions on troop withdrawal, but along the way they've developed a bit of paranoia on the issue. With 40 Iraqi battallions online and 40 more on the way this year, it's not premature to say there's some light at the end of the tunnel for U.S. forces, and we shouldn't be afraid to say so.
Kristol is certainly correct in one regard though: this must be a victory strategy, not an exit strategy. |
