re: I wish I had backed up the eighteen wheeler at $7
If not for 9/11, the bottom for NTAP probably would have been around $9. So, if you had been waiting to load up at 7, you wouldn't have gotten any, and you'd be kicking yourself now, for missing the bottom. Whether NTAP bottomed at 6 or 9 or 15 or 3, was dependant on variables and events that were unknowable and unpredictable. Not just hard to predict, but impossible to predict.
Even if a new Bull Market has now resumed (and I'm not quite convinced of this), then there will still be a lot of volatility inside the bigger upward trend. If I wanted to add, I'd buy when we retrace to the 50D moving average (now at 18). Not saying we will go there; just saying that's where I'd buy.
And we may not be done with the "bad dream". Unemployment will probably continue edging higher all through 2002 (lagging the economic recovery). There may be more Enrons and Argentinas lurking out there. And there are thousands of people trained by Bin Laden, throughout the world, who haven't been found yet. And whoever sent the Anthrax letters may have some more surprises for us. Where will the Nas be, after a dirty suitcase bomb (low-tech nuke) goes off in downtown LA or Boston? I won't go below 20% cash, and I won't be using margin or buying any more LEAPs, no matter how good the news gets. If NEM (leveraged play on the price of gold) goes to 14, I'll put 10-20% of my portfolio in it, as a hedge against a CollapseOfConfidence. |
