Sunday, May 29, 2005
Our Petroleum Predicament
This post includes a long "Peak Oil" editorial published in a popular fishing magazine from the 1970's called Fishing Facts. I think it took a lot of guts for the publisher, George Pazik, to write something with an edge to it that ostensibly catered to a rather conservative audience. This first grabbed my eye as a teenager and because of my tunnel-vision for outdoors activities at the time, I can't say whether other popular magazines featured such pessimistic outlooks. Pazik had written and continued to write strong editorials on conservation and environmental pollution after this editorial. However, this was a kind of crowning achievement, and authorities such as Al Bartlett from U. of Colorado reference this piece. Compared to what he did almost 30 years ago, today's current publishers and media midgets do absolutely shameful work.
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Our Petroleum Predicament
A Special Editorial Feature by GEORGE PAZIK Editor & Publisher, Fishing Facts, November 1976
FORWARD
If you and I could get away on a fishing trip for a few days, we would probably talk about many things. Our talk would not just be confined to fishing; we would probably discuss many other things which concern us. Since there is no way I could go fishing with 200,000 people, I use these editorials each month as an opportunity to visit with you. I don't confine my editorials to fishing, either, but have always covered a number of subjects which concern us as fishermen and as fellow human beings.
This editorial is written in early September. It should reach you at just about the time of the third anniversary of the Arab Oil Embargo and, perhaps, just before the American presidential election. Although a recent poll shows that 55% of us don't believe there ever was an "Energy Crisis", all of us will have to admit that the Arab embargo changed the world.
No wonder we're confused. We have been confronted with an almost daily barrage of stories about the so-called "Energy Crisis". One day we're going to burn garbage for fuel, another day some "expert" proposes a space station to gather the sun's energy. Each day seems to bring yet another proposal, but one certain proposal never stops coming through: LET THE PRICE GO UP AND WE'LL GET ALL THE OIL AND NATURAL GAS WE NEED. That one must be on a broken record because we hear it over and over again. It lends credence to a popular belief that the Energy Crisis was artificially created to line the pockets of the petroleum industry and the oil-producing nations. I sense that all of us, Canadians and Americans alike, share an uneasy feeling that all is not well. We suspect that we are not being told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
I have learned some startling facts about the so called "Energy Crisis" which will shock and dismay most people. I believe it is my obligation to pass these facts on to you for your own careful consideration. I have been as careful as I know how to be in assembling the facts, figures, judgements and opinions contained in the Special Editorial Feature that follows. It has been particularly difficult to get statistics which are all for the same time periods. In some cases they don't exist, therefore I've tried to be conservative in the way I use these statistics.
I am not a reporter. I do not claim to be impartial. I have no obligation to give equal space to all sides of every issue and to be "fair" to all sides. My only obligation is to be fair to you. I carefully identify my sources of information, I quote others accurately, and I clearly state which are my opinions. However, just by sifting through the millions of words which have been written about the "Energy Crisis" and choosing which I will use, I have already expressed my opinions by making those choices. If there are mistakes, they are unintentional but they are my responsibility.
Three years ago when the Arab Oil Embargo hit us, I knew I would want to write an editorial on it. I started to save hundreds of clippings from newspapers and magazines. I began attending lectures, seminars and meetings; some private, some public. I read numerous books and scientific papers and made voluminous notes. Always I felt that I needed a little more solid information before I could write the kind of editorial the subject deserved. Two and a half years went by and I still felt that I didn't have the whole story. Suddenly things began to fall into place and I realized I was ready at last.
You know, over thirty years ago I graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Metallurgical Engineering as my major course of study and with Mining Engineering as my minor study. I never entered the field of engineering because the Army wanted me to be a gunslinger in World War II and I never went back to it. Little did I dream thirty years ago that my studies in physics, chemistry, mathematics, excavating, are processing, metal extraction, etc., would be so useful to me in a study of Energy for an editorial I would write for a magazine I headed up as Publisher and Editor. I would never attempt to work as an engineer today, but those courses of thirty years ago sure helped me understand the many complexities of our energy-producing systems.
You will note that I chose the title, "Our Petroleum Predicament" rather than the term "Energy Crisis" we have all heard until we're sick of it. I don't think "Energy Crisis" is correct. I chose the word Petroleum because it includes both oil and natural gas, which supply 75% of our energy, and these are the substances with which we have aproblem. Our coal is not threatened, neither is water power. The word "Crisis" implies an immediate situation whose outcome will determine whether good or bad consequences will follow. "Crisis" is also used to describe the turning point of a disease when it becomes apparent whether the patient will live or die. Using the word "Crisis" implies that something came up suddenly which can and must be cured with a quick-fix remedy or all is lost. You can see why the term "Energy Crisis" does not correctly describe our present problems.
"Our Petroleum Predicament", however, does exist, as I will prove to you in this Special Editorial Feature. The Arabs didn't invent it or cause it. It's been coming on us ever since World War II. Nobody did it to us, we did it to ourselves. There is no quick fix, no one answer, just many possible answers, none of them quick, cheap or easy.
As fishermen we have to be concerned. Plentiful supplies of petroleum are essential to our sport as we now know it. As human beings we must also be concerned. Finally, as citizens of the United States and Canada, we have to know what is happening to us.
This is not a message of impending doom but a promise of the great opportunity that awaits us if we start acting wisely, NOW. It is a promise of a golden age; a future that is ours for only the effort to bring it about. To get there, however, will require us to change the way we feel about a great many things in our lives. If we fail to make these changes, a cataclysm awaits us.
Let me try to tell you about it.
FIRST, THE CONCLUSIONS
There are many people who are too busy to read lengthy articles. They'll glance at the first few paragraphs and then flip through to the end in order to read the conclusions.. To make it easy for such readers, and maybe add an extra touch of interest for the rest, I've listed immediately below some of the-most important facts and conclusions presented in this Special Editorial Feature.
In the early stages of the 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo, President Richard M. Nixon went on national television to tell the country about Project Independence, which was his answer to "the energy crisis":
"Let us set as our national goal, in the spirit of Apollo, with the determination of the Manhattan Project, that by the end of this decade we will have developed the potential to meet our energy needs without depending on any foreign energy sources. Let us pledge that by 1980, under Project Independence, we shall be able to meet America's energy needs from America's own energy resources."
Project Independence was a politically-inspired slogan at best, a dangerously misleading doctrine at worst. There is no way that this nation can develop the energy to meet our needs without depending on any foreign energy sources by 1980, by 1985, and probably not even within this century.
Project Independence was based on four basic premises: (1) Major expansions in nuclear energy. (2) The development of oil from oil shales. (3) Vastly increased production of coal. (4) Large, new oil and natural gas discoveries as a result of intensive exploratory drilling. None of these are happening now or are likely to happen by 1980, 1985, or by any other date in the near future.
We are now using about 6 billion barrels of oil per year, yet at its peak in 1970, U.S. production of oil was only 3.245 billion barrels, it slipped to 3.210 billion in 1971 and to 3.108 billion in 1972. 2 It's continuing to go down every year. What makes us think we could DOUBLE our production of this diminishing resource so as to achieve 6 billion barrels a year and thus be "Independent"?
Our frantic efforts to dig up all our oil and natural gas can best be described as a policy to "deplete America first".' How this adds to our national security escapes people of only average intelligence. Perhaps it involves some secret principle known only to a privileged few but which cannot be shared with the masses.
The present U.S. national energy policy can best be described by the title of that pleasant old song: "Drifting and Dreaming".
U.S. production of petroleum reached a peak in 1970 and has gone down every year since.2 It is not likely to ever rise again to its former heights unless Alaskan oil can be brought in soon enough, in large enough amounts, in which case it could peak slightly again and then go down again to ultimate depletion. 8
By the most optimistic predictions, Alaska's Prudhoe Bay oil field will produce about 10 billion barrels of oil, but it will take a half century or more to get it all out.2 That's not quite enough oil, totally, to fill U.S. present needs for two years.
There have been no major new discoveries of oil in Alaska since the discovery of the Prudhoe Bay oil field in 1968, 8 a matter of great disappointment to many in the industry.
Since Alaskan oil has been planned for shipment to the west coast, (where it isn't needed), half of it or more may go instead to Japan,3 which is exactly what some observers have been predicting for at least five years. 8
It is estimated that drilling for oil off the Atlantic Coast may produce 2 to 4 billion barrels; the Pacific Coast may produce 2 to 5 billion barrels.4 Just as with all oil fields, it will take about a half century to get it all. (We are using about 6 billion barrels of oil per year at present.)
In 1945, it required 51 new-field wildcat wells to make 1 profitable discovery of oil. By 1965, despite the use of the latest improved technology, it had dropped to 137 to 1.2 If we believe that this ratio will greatly improve in the future, we must assume that the oil companies drilled their worst prospects first.
About 80% of the oil that will ever be produced from the lower 48 states was already discovered by 1971.2
The United States is now importing a little over 40% of its oil. Another Arab Oil Embargo would make a shambles of our economy.
North America never had more than 15% of the world's total petroleum (includes oil and natural gas). The Canadian share is not yet half gone, but the American share is more than half gone. 2
The United States now probably has less than 5% of the world's crude oil reserves.2
America is using oil faster than any nation on earth. Guess who's going to run out first?
Those who think the Arabs and the Russians don't know all this are the same people who believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.
We can buy all the oil we want to buy from "our friends". All we have to do is to pay their price and meet their terms. You guess if the terms will get easier and the price will get lower as our own supplies get closer to running out?
Petroleum has so many wonderful and varied uses in the petrochemical industry: rubber, plastics, synthetic fibers, pharmaceuticals, fertilizer, etc., that simply burning it up for its heat alone can be described as an atrocity, a chemical crime.5
U.S. production of natural gas peaked in 1973 and has gone down every year since. Proved reserves have declined for the past 5 years. 2
About 75% of all the natural gas that will ever be produced in the lower 48 states was already discovered by 1975. 2
Natural gas is already in such short supply that it is not longer a question if some users will be cut off but only who will be first and second.
By 1974 estimates, each 20c per 1,000 cubic feet raise in price of natural gas would give the industry approximately an additional 56 billion dollars on estimated proved reserves; plus an approximate additional 70 billion on the gas still likely to be discovered in the future. That's a total of 126 billion dollars.2
By 1974 estimates, each $1 price raise on a barrel of petroleum liquids produced in the United States would give the industry approximately an additional 45 billion dollars for their estimated proved reserves; plus an additional sum of approximately 62 billion dollars on the recoverable petroleum liquids likely to be discovered in the future. That comes to an additional 107 billion dollars.2 (126 for natural gas plus 107 for petroleum liquids equals 233 billion dollars for the simple little price raises used in this example.)
Perhaps the petroleum industry is entitled to more money because of inflation. However, as to the claim that they will then "find all the new gas and oil we need," let's slow up and think. In this poker game they will be getting hundreds of billions of dollars more whether they find additional oil and gas or not. How about some hard evidence to show that all that "new" gas and oil really exists?8
Japan is one of the world's most heavily industrialized nations. Why is it that 210 million Americans squander as much energy each year as 107 million Japanese consume totally?6
From 1940 thru 1974, the gas mileage delivered by American automobiles has gone in only one direction: DOWN. When Detroit blames government-mandated emission controls and safety features (which only started in earnest in 1971) for the bad mileage of their gas-guzzling monsters, they are neglecting their sorry record of the preceding 31 years. We've had 35 years of waste, in all, because Detroit sold and we bought: "longer", "lower", "wider", "heavier", "faster" and "more powerful" .
Until May 1975, the highest and most erroneous estimates of our reserves of oil and natural gas for the preceding 14 years came from the official governmental agency entrusted with that job: The U.S. Geological Survey, of the Department of the Interior. By all their estimates during that period we had ample oil and natural gas reserves to last us thru the end of this century and beyond. Why was this sorry situation allowed to continue for 14 years? Who was responsible? Are they still giving us their "expert" advice?
Former Secretary of the Interior for eight years, Stewart Udall has written: "Having helped lull the American people into a dangerous overconfidence, I felt a moral duty to admit my own errors and to expose the wildly optimistic assumptions that had misled the country. It was clear to me that an enormous energy balloon of inflated promises and boundless optimism had long since lost touch with any mainland reality".7
For the past 20 years a world-renowned geologist has been trying to tell us about our declining petroleum reserves. In 1956 he predicted that domestic crude oil production would peak between 1965-70. It happened in 1970. In 1961, he warned that domestic natural gas production would peak in about 1977. It happened in 1973. He worked for the U.S. Geological Survey from 1963 thru August 1976. Why was he ignored?
Petroleum is a unique resource without equal. It is found in huge natural fields, not narrow seams covered by tons of earth. It is pumped not mined. It is concentrated chemical ~energy and a basis for a myriad products. There are no meaningful substitutes for petroleum in sight on this planet for the rest of this century. 7
Those who believe that some miracle of technology is going to magically produce a cheap, simple substitute for petroleum are probably the same people who still believe that storks bring babies.
The only SURE way to avoid a catastrophic disruption of our lives is to change from the most wasteful users of energy on earth to one of the stingiest. We need to get off the exponential growth for growth's sake joyride we've been on since World War II. That joyride was based on cheap oil, something we'll never see again. This means changing our way of life, our national outlook as a people. Some people may do this voluntarily but the bulk of us want to make sure that everyone is making the same sacrifices. That means that energy conservation will have to be mandated by law. We could do it now, cheerfully, or do it later when there is no longer a choice because disaster is upon us. Either way we'll do it.
We must go to the sun for our future energy. The sun's energy is virtually unlimited and good for at least a billion years. It is environmentally ideal and free for the taking. The technology exists today to harness the sun to produce electricity, either from heat or directly from sunlight by photo voltaic cells. The electricity can then be converted to chemical energy in the form of hydrogen from the hydrolysis of water and shipped by pipeline to wherever it is needed. Upon burning, hydrogen produces water. When we combine limitless clean energy from the sun with a new lifestyle which no longer insists that "more is better" and that "there is never enough", we will be in on the dawning of a new age upon the earth. 8
If any politician had guts enough to tell you all these things, would you vote for him?
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