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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 278.32+0.4%12:44 PM EST

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To: Eric Yang who wrote (9747)3/19/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: Phillip C. Lee  Read Replies (1) of 213176
 
Well, there are two arguing points:
(1) When did the sales in Europe hit 100,000 units mark?
(2) It is unclear regarding "above 100,000 units". It could be
125,000, or 140,000 ... etc.

Therefore, we only could roughly estimate the "guessing" number.

The following are my two scenarios:

(1) The same as previous post, with the same assumptions:
(i) 25% of revenue was derived from Europe;
(ii) the total amount sold before January is about 50% of
the sales after January
Hence, we have:
133,000x0.5x0.25 ~= 16,000
100,000 - 16,000 = 84,000
84,000/0.25 = 336,000
Plus from now to Q2 close, there are another 7-10 days,
therefore, the final number is about 386,000 units.

(2) We assume the same sales prior and after January, and based on
Hughes figure - 35,000 units before January.
It was introduced on November, 7th, and assumption shiping to
Europe 1 week later, hence the time frame to sell G3's prior
to January was about 1.5 months. We have exact 3 months in
Q2. So, There are at least 65,000 units sold.

65,000x4 = 26,000
Plus the shipments from now to Q2 close, we have roughly
310,000 units sold, which is the minimum estimates.

Phil
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