Compaq, Corning, Circuit City, all saying, by word and deed, that "things are getting better". The data points are gradually piling up, that we may be just past the inflection point for tech fundamentals. At the October bottom, I predicted a 50% rally for the Nas by June 2002, and later said I'd be selling into it and be at 40% cash by the time we got there. Basically, I thought it was just going to be another Bear Rally, to be all given back, like the Summer 2000, January 2001, and May-June 2001 rallies.
That 50% rally has already happened, and I'm at about 30% cash+shorts, 70% long. I'm slowly, incrementally, becoming a Believer in this rally, however. I'm more willing to Believe this rally, than the earlier ones. I don't think I'll buy any more LEAPs, or use any margin, but I'm getting more willing to Hold, rather than SellTheRallies. I think I'll target 20% cash+shorts, rather than 40%.
Doing nothing today, really haven't done much since mid-October, may not do much all through 2002, just Hold and Watch. Today, I'm going to browse through the Nursery catalogs, deciding which apple trees I want to plant next Spring. This winter, a moose got inside the fence, and I think she killed all the pear and apple trees I put in the last 2 years. Got to work on the fence next Spring, before I put the saplings in. |
