The motif may still be up, but I think this market is sucking wind.
I am now open the possibility of a lower low this year, nearly across the board.
W/r to the Dow, we may have more chop to a higher high, into late August. Remains to be seen. Dow likes falling commodity prices at the moment.
The knock this fall may retrace one rung lower, to the 61 % retrace of the early '03 low. This retrace and possible pivot lands at an interesting juncture, w/r to longer term trendlines; and right near the 10,000 area.
img352.imageshack.us
The time area for the possible low is week of Dec. 8th, based on trading cycles and waves shown.
I like this, because on a pure independent basis it lands smack on a huge Bradley turn.
marketclues.net@keatepartners.com
If things turn out this way, this low could and more than likely would mark lows in nearly every indice I follow. It would drag AAII sentiment back to all time lows for one more time (just had that), and serve as a springboard from that perspective for a huge rally. The lowest sentiment spike I have in AAII is back in 1990, just a bit lower than the area we are hovering around in now. And let me tell you, that is low.
The size of that rally (in '09) would then determine whether or not the LT bull case remains intack, for a few more years.
My 'board' read is we have some boisterous bulls (not many but some) along with many hungry bears. The bulls may a bit ahead of the game at the moment.
TF
(This market requires shifty eyes!) |
