HERE'S LAST SUNDAYS NEWSLETTER.....THINGS ARE DEFINATELY IMPROVING HERE...P&F WISE THAT IS...SO GET READY FOR FREDDY..
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED 16TH MARCH 2003
"SHORTS WERE DIVING FOR COVER"
Hello everyone, hope this letter finds you all in good health and spirits...
Well the markets got very oversold like i said they would... We bottomed short term on Wednesday midday and then powie we took off hard and fast right through Thursday, which was up large...Friday was a consolidation day...But we caught that exact turn on Weds using our technical charts and went long almost immediately..The following day was awesome with the Semiconductors Sector leading the charge...A lot of stocks were up 2 & 3 points a heavy volume. The first "good" sign in a very long time...
It's not unusual to see these oversold bounces run up a bit more before they turn over and head lower for a test of last weeks lows and then maybe a test of the Oct lows..I am unconvinced that was "THE" bottom...What with War eminent this week, and this unknown virus out there, potential retaliatory attacks from Al Qaeda when we start this War..I'd stay very cautious, very diligent to movement in the futures this week...
This is triple witching options expiration week...With the FOMC on Tues too boot, it's always very very volatile and I suggest you be careful and prudent with your trading capital...What I mean is HOLD ON TO YOUR MONEY!
We have seen some changes to our indicators this week, some good others bad...Folks we are in a time of flux. The market is very oversold and so are my Point & Figure larger indexes...Everything is down near 30% or below..that's Bullish, we've come down for a long long time, so we're due for a rally...A bear market rally right now...In fact every rally has been exactly that hasn't it? We have not broken thru the 200 day moving averages on any indexes..and very few stocks either...
What we witnessed last week was a rally up and into overhead resistance. Can we breakout here? it's possible but how far can we run in this very unnerving environment. Not too far I would suggest..What is much more important is the mere fact we do NOT have to know the outcome of how far we go, or where the markets take us right?..lol..I mean why should we guess, or speculate? We have NO crystal ball everyone. The idea of trying to gamble here is suicide. I suggest you stick to your game plan...And what is that game plan? Play Caboose, follow the trend up or down, have NO bias, do not lean to one side or the other right now, because we do not know if this rally is for real...
I for one do not believe this was the bottom...We did successfully test the Feb 13th lows...at just below 805 to 789..close enough.. We "always" see the markets push thru the base numbers and overshoot them all the time...nothing unusual about that.. But the fact is and was that we held it and rallied up hard..This week is critical, like they all are, but I think it's very important for this rally to have follow thru or Oct lows are a certainty...and just a quick note...A break of those lows would not shock me..The streets a bit too complacent for me. Yes the VIX hit 41 but it sold off quickly on that rally...I want to see a washout at 47/48 area with a 2 billion , "get me out at all costs" panic selloff to NAIL "THE" BOTTOM...When everyone is screaming run for the hills, we'll be BUYING THAT DIP<g>...Hey that's the way it works folks...You never sell those crashes, you BUY them...OK nuff said of what we think here. Let's watch it unfold this week day by day..The markets are so news driven it's very difficult to trade it unless you watch it with us in the Real Time Room...
Ok some thoughts on how to make repairs to your long-term portfolio's..IRA's or other wise...You need to contact your wonderful and multitalented Stock Broker and have him send you or fax you Option Papers to sign. You wish to be able to do ALL option trades...The idea here is to rake in some hard needed cash on any of your current long positions. In fact you could buy some selected Stocks, Indexes or ETF's and write or sell(same thing) options to collect much needed money each and every month..In fact you all need to learn this right now...I've talked about it for years, and probably very few of you actually have tried this...But what the hell do you have to lose? Not much everyone...It's called writing Covered Calls on stocks you own.
Let's talk about some ETF's Exchange Traded Funds...Particulaly the SMH or the BBH and you can see and read all about it at www.ishares.com...What is so unique about these funds is your trading a basket of stocks. 10 to be exact. and it's for stocks within a certain sector. SMH for the semiconductors, BBH for the bio techs and so on. More important is they are cap weighted..It's of the utmost to check out who's on top here, and what the first 3-4 stocks look like technically...Like in the BBH, AMGN is the top stock with a cap at 23.57% with DNA second at 18.65% and so on down the line.....So you can see if these 2 stocks are outperforming the markets like AMGN is, then your BBH holdings will be doing great...If you understand technical trading, then because these funds trade just like a stock, you can write options on them, short them, whatever...but the point is this, when the index gets near resistance just sell calls against your shares...Or exit the trade and wait for a pullback...Just another tool to make money folks...
OK LET'S CHECK OUT ALL THE INDEXES AND SEE WHERE WE ARE AT THIS POINT. ON THE P&F INDICATORS WE ARE REALLY GETTING LOW HERE AND THAT IS A BULLISH SIGN FOR ME...I WROTE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO THAT 4 SHORT TERM INDICATORS TURNED UP, WELL 3 HAVE TURNED DOWN AGAIN LAST WEEK..THIS IS "NOT" UNUSUAL NEAR BOTTOMS AS THEY ARE VACILLATING BETWEEN THE LINES RIGHT HERE..AS TO OUR 3 MAIN INDICATORS? THE NYSE THE OTC AND THE OPTIONAL BULLISH PERCENTS? LET'S CHECK THEM RIGHT HERE AND NOW..
NYSE BP CURRENT IS 36%--- OCT LOWS AT 24%...DOES NOT MEAN WE "HAVE" TO GO THERE...42% IS THE REVERSAL UP.
OTC BULLISH PERCENT CURRENT IS 32.88% OCT LOWS AT 22.00% THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP IS 40%...
OPTI BULLISH PERCENT---ALL STOCKS IN BOTH INDEXES ABOVE THAT ARE OPTIONABLE...CURRENT IS 31.02% THE OCT LOWS AT 20% WITH 38% THE REVERSAL BACK UP...
AS YOU CAN EASILY SEE WE ARE NOWHERE NEAR THE OCT LOWS..HOWEVER WE DID HOLD AN IMPORTANT BOTTOM LAST WEEK...SO WE WATCH AND WAIT, TRADE CAREFULLY AS THE ENTIRE P&F IS ON DEEE FENSE...
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DJIA---BIG NICE MOVE OFF THE LOWS THIS PASS WEEK. I HAD A PROJECTION TO 7900 A LOCAL "LOWER" TOP AREA...THIS INDEX NEEDS TO MOVE SWIFTLY ABOVE 8000 WITH A NEAR TERM SHOT AT 8150 HEAVY RESISTANCE(R) THERE..A TRIPLE TOP..8200 EXPLODES THIS INDEX UP HARD AND FAST..WATCH FOR IT...ALSO 7750 REVERSES IT BACK DOWN AGAIN ANOTHER FAILED BREAKOUT(B/O)...SET ALERTS ON THIS INDEX AND ALL INDEXES AND STOCKS WE WATCH AND TRADE...THERE WAS A DOJI ON FRIDAY AT THE 40 EMA DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC)..
COMPX---BIG BOUNCE OFF 1260 LAST WEEK, IT ROARED UP HARD RIGHT TO HEAVY R HERE AT 1350.00 A TRIPLE TOP AREA ON P&F. 1360 IS AN AMAZING B/O WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...1400-1420 WOULD BE MY TARGET IF IT HAPPENED WITH VOLUME FOLKS...1320 IS THE 3 BOX REV DOWN(3BXRVDN)...I SEE TECH GRIPPING HERE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF TRACTION...
SOX---SEMIS BP(BULLISH PERCENT) REVERSED UP LAST WEEK...A BIG TIME PLUS FOR THE OTC AND TECH IN GENERAL//SEMIS ALWAYS LEAD UP AND DOWN...THERE IS HEAVY O/H R AT THE BRL LINE AND THE 200 DAY MVA...AT 320...THAT "SHOULD" STOP IT COLD "IF" IT GETS THERE..295 IS THE 3BXRVDN---IT DID MAKE A HIGHER LOW AT 280 SO FAR....
SMH---THIS ETF HELD THE BSL LINE AT SUPPORT AT 21...JUST REVERSED BACK UP 3 BOXES TO 24..IT MUST CONTINUE UP HERE AND OF COURSE THE SOX WILL CONTROL THIS INDEX...IT'S TRADABLE FOLKS...CHEAP AND VERY LIQUID...
NDX---A SURPRISE BREAKOUT AT 1030 WE CALLED THIS LIVE AND OF COURSE I HAVE WRITTEN ABOUT THAT NUMBER EACH OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS...IT WAS SIMPLY AN AWESOME WEEK FOR THIS INDEX AND THE NQ'S..THE FUTURES...IT BROKE A SPREAD QUADRUPLE TOP HERE AND COULD GO A LOT HIGHER...THERE'S A SPINNING TOP OR HANGING MAN BAR LAST FRIDAY SO WE'LL WATCH IT FOR A DAY OR TWO. 1010 THE 3BXREVDN. AN IMPORTANT INDICATOR IS THE BP OF THE NDX..IT IS JUST 1% AWAY FROM A SOLID REVERSAL BACK UP. KEEP IN MIND THE 200 EMA ON THE DCC IS AT 1070...
BTK---LOOKS LIKE IT BOTTOMED AT 310, HECK THE OCT LOWS WERE AT 305? CLOSE ENOUGH?...SO IT RALLIED UP TO THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND AT 330 THERE IS HEAVY O/H R HERE AT THE 40 EMA...315 THE 3BXDN 335 KEEPS IT MOVING HIGHER...
BKX---BROKE DOWN WEEKS AND WEEKS AGO...THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK IS AT 650 RIGHT THERE LAST WEEK...THE BANKING INDEX HAD A NICE BOUNCE SO FAR...THE QUESTION IS CAN IT CONTINUE TO MOVE UP TO HELP THE DOW. THERE'S A PERFECT MORNING DOJI START ON THE DCC CHART...
BTW FWIW..FOR THOSE OF YOU HAVING A HARD TIME UNDERSTANDING WHAT I AM SAYING AND WRITING ABOUT..YOU ALL NEED TO BONE UP ON POINT & FIGURE AND CANDLESTICKS...TOM DORSEY'S BOOK ON P&F...STEVE NISON'S BOOK ON CANDLESTICKS...YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THIS AND BE ABLE TO TRADE IT..NO MATTER HOW YOUNG OR OLD YOU ARE... JUST DO IT PLEASE...I'LL HELP YOU ANYWAY I CAN...
SPX---DOJI FRIDAY THAT'S NEGATIVE...850 ENORMOUS RESISTANCE. 860 IS A WILD BREAKOUT FOR THE WHOLE MARKET. 810 THE 3BXRVDN---THIS INDEX NEEDS 34% FOR THE BP TO REV UP IT'S CURRENTLY AT 29%.
SPM3---FUTURES...BIG RUN OFF THE LOWS OF WEDS LAST WEEK...848 HEAVY TRIPLE TOP THERE...852 THE B/O...828 REVERSES IT DOWN...THERE IS A DOUBLE DOJI ON THE DCC CHART AT THE 40 EMA AT A 100% PROJECTION NUMBER AT 842...I THINK IT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK OUT OF THAT HIGH...
VIX---THIS VOLATILE INDEX BROKE A SPREAD QUADRUPLE TOP AT 41...THEN PROMPTY SOLD OFF ON THE TERRIFIC RALLY AS IT FELL TO 36...34/35 IS VERY STRONG SUPPORT..IT'S RIGHT AT THE BSL LINE SO LET'S ALL WATCH AND SEE IF IT HOLDS THIS WEEK...38/39 IS THE REVERSAL BACK UP AND LOOKOUT IF THIS INDEX TAKES OUT 42...ALL HECK WILL BREAK LOOSE. MY THINKING IS THIS..IF WE TAKE OUT 42 WE RUN TO 48-50 AREA AND TEST THE OCT LOWS HARD...KEEP YOUR ONE GOOD EYE ON THIS ONE FOLKS.
VXN---45 HAS HELD HERE..44 BREAK IS GOOD FOR THE MARKETS...49 IS "NOT" GOOD FOR THE MARKETS...SO JUST SET ALERTS ON EITHER TRIGGER...
DXJ3---THE JUNE FUTURES FOR THE DOLLAR GAVE A NICE BUY SIGNAL LAST WEEK AT 100.80 FINALLY...100.20 REVERSES THIS MOVE...
GCJ3---GOLD HAS COLLAPSED HERE...AND SHOULD DO A DEAD CAT BOUNCE(DCB) UP TO 345 TO 350...THEN? IT'S A SHORT FOLKS...
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OK HERE'S THE WATCH LIST FOR THIS WEEK FOR DAYTRADERS AND OTHERS...USE HARD STOPS...CASH WOULD BE KING AT NIGHT FOLKS...UNLESS SOMETHING CRAZY HAPPENS THIS WEEK..WAR IS EMINENT TUES OR WEDS OF THIS WEEK...
MSFT---PRETTY BREAKOUT ON THE DDC CHART OUT OF A DESCENDING WEDGE PATTERN...HAS SOME R HERE...BUT LOOKS BETTER...25.25 THE BTL---24.30 THE SST
CCMP---WEAK LOOKING CHART, NOTHING HAS CHANGED THIS IS A SHORT ALL RALLY STOCK RIGHT NOW..AT R ON THE DCC NEAR THE 40 EMA...43.55 THE BTL---42.50 THE SST...
ERTS---THIS STOCK BROKE OUT BIG AT 55 A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP. TOUCHED 58..WOW NICE MOVE LAST WEEK...HIT THE 200 EMA AND SOLD OFF A BIT ON THE DCC...57.10 THE BTL---55.95 THE SST...
EXPE---ONE VERY POWERFUL STOCK EVEN AFTER THE RECENT SPLIT...HAS PLENTY OF SHORTS IN IT TOO<G>...37.65 THE BTL---36.50 THE SST...DOUBLE TOPPED FRIDAY...
XLNX---VERY CLOSE TO HEAVY R AT AND NEAR THE TRIPLE TOP AREA...I''M SEEING A LOT OF SPINNING TOPS ON ALL THE DCC CHARTS..INTERESTING..THIS COULD GO EITHER WAY...26.00 THE BTL---24.90 THE SST...
RMBS---THIS STOCK CHART IS MAKING LOWER TOPS AND LOWER BOTTOMS...ANY BREAK BELOW 12 IS REAL TROUBLE TO THIS ONE...13.40 THE BTL---12.65 THE SST...
QLGC---THIS STOCK TOUCHED THE BSL LINE AND BOUNCED...I STILL THINK IT'S A SHORT.---39.10 THE BTL---37.95 THE SST...
QCOM---RIGHT AT HEAVY R HERE AT THE BRL LINE...38 THE BTL---36.85 THE SST...LOOKS BETTER AS A SHORT...
IMCL---THIS STOCK CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RS HERE..IT'S "IN PLAY" STILL...15.35 THE BTL---14.55 THE SST...I LIKE IT SHORT HERE...
ELX---THIS STOCK SAVED ITSELF FROM A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN LAST WEEK...RALLIED UP AND BROKE A DOUBLE TOP...19.55 THE BTL---18.60 THE SST...
IBM---RIGHT AT R HERE AT THE DOWN TRENDLINE...79.75 THE BTL---78.25 THE SST...DUE FOR A PULLBACK HERE MARKET WILLING...FOR YOU SHORTERS...
PG---ALSO RIGHT AT HEAVY R HERE AT THE BRL LINE..ANOTHER NICE POTENTIAL SHORT...IF THE MARKET SELLOFFS THIS WEEK STOCK CHARTS LIKE THIS ONE WILL ROLL OVER QUICKLY..AS SELLERS HAVE BEEN AT THIS AREA BEFORE...84 THE BTL---82.60 THE SST---I LIKE IT SHORT...
MO---I AM CURRENTLY SHORT THIS STOCK AT 34.99...BUT IT HAS A COURT HEARING TOMORROW I MAY BE FORCED TO COVER EARLY...IT BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM LAST WEEK..SO VERY NEGATIVE...BAD NEWS??? AHEAD OF THE RULING?...WE'LL SEE...35.35 THE BTL---34.45 THE SST...LET'S HOPE<g>
INTU---I AM SHORT THIS ONE..BUT MAY EXIT EARLY...IT SHOWED LOT'S OF STRENGTH ON FRIDAY...IT'S RIGHT AT HEAVY R HERE AT THE BRL...51 IS THE BREAKOUT..I'LL BE GONE SOONER<G>...50.40 THE BTL---49.40 THE SST...I'LL NEED THAT FOLKS FOR SURE<GULP>...
KLAC---IN A SMALL TRIANGLE HERE BUT BELOW ALL THE SUPPORTS NEGATIVE FOR MY LIKING...35.55 THE BTL---34.55 THE SST...I'LL TAKE IT SHORT...
NVLS---THIS STOCK IS VERY WEAK HERE FOLKS...IF WE BEGIN TO SELLOFF THIS WEEK JUST SHORT IT...26.85 THE BTL---25.70 THE SST...TAKE IT WITH ME...SHORT...
MXIM---NICE RALLY LAST WEEK BUT SHORT TERM OVER BOUGHT...WITH DARK CLOUD COVER ON THE DCC...38.10 THE BTL---36.95 THE SST...
LLTC---PRETTY CHART FOR THIS NICE SEMIS..HELD THE BSL LINE AND POPPED OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS TO GIVE A NEW BUY SIGNAL...DOJI ON FRIDAY THO...33.20 THE BTL---32 THE SST...
AMZN---VERY STRONG CHART AS ARE ALL INET STOCKS RECENTLY...25.05 THE BTL---24.30 THE SST...
YHOO---FABULOUS CHART OF HIGHER LOWS AND HIGHER HIGHS...NICE CUP WITH HANDLE DCC...21.05 THE BTL---20.25 THE SST...
OK IT LOOKS LIKE THE WAR WILL BEGIN THIS WEEK...ADD THAT TO TRIPLE WITCHING OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK, AND THE FOMC??? WHAT A MISH MASH OF EVENTS...ULTRA CAUTION HERE FOLKS..PLEASE...
SEE YOU ALL IN THE ROOM....
THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK...IS-----------------------------------------------------springtime..............one word lower case...no caps...HOPE YOU CAN READ THIS<VBG>
HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK EVERYONE
WARMEST REGARDS
JERRY
jerry olson
www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com
jerry.olson@verizon.net
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