Hi Trakker, good to have you back...
ok, I'll bite..
* Do you bears think that all the weak hands ($30+ holders) are already flushed out of
IOMG, so we won't actually see the resistance levels that are so enthusiastically
debated. And isn't the picture better now going forward than say last March when
there weren't as many OEMs, or parts suppliers to drive the cost of manufacturing
down.
>>> Back in March, people thought that Iomega would have revenues
of 400 million by Q3, and earnings of .25/share or more (split
adjusted) Also, who would have thought that 310m in revenues
would only equal EPS of .09? Still no major players have included
ZIP as a standard item, only as an option, or only in select
models. Notice that all these 'select' models ALWAYS have
reduced functionality compared to the other modules at the
same price point (slower CPU, no scanner, etc..) Just PC
makers trying to keep costs down.. Damn them!
* Speaking of costs - what impact will the new team of parts "idiots" (I use the term
only because of those who feel us longs are idiots to continue holding) like Motorola,
TI and Intel (those idiots) have on the cost of manufacturing our little products (sorry
bull that is product not paper).
>>> No one is an idiot for investing in Iomega. It's just that not
all of us share the same vision of the future. I just don't
see earnings (save the Q4 blip) getting much higher than .10/share.
margins have to increase ALOT for this to happen. We a talking
a perennial 60 P/E stock. About TI/Intel, etc.. To play ball
with these companies, you must guarantee that you'll buy a
certain number of parts (volume commitments). You or I could
get these companies to build parts for us if we guaranteed
volume. watch out for huge increases in inventories!
* Speaking of little - how 'bout that new 15mm Zip. What impact will that have on Q1
and going forward...
>>> good question. depends on number of OEMS, factory costs, margins, etc.
no data here yet. If a foothold can be gained here....could be interesting
* Speaking of Q1. Now that this "challenging" quarter is over and the slowest quarter
of the season is behind us, how do you bears feel about the next two "strong" retail
quarters.
>>> expectations are high again. Could see another stock price drop
once analysts realize that Iomega is not going to do 1.00/share
next year. Any stumbles could mean big trouble. Q4 is key.
* Finally. IOM is entering the trade show season. In the next three months we have
COMDEX, CES and Macworld San Francisco to look forward to for new
announcements on product extensions and possibly new lines. KE has consistenly
shown he has cards up his sleeve that none of us have been able to predict -- I just
try to keep in mind what Iomega means when they say "Personal Storage Solutions".
>>> As I said in a previous post, the market niches are pretty much
filled. The ZIP filled an obvious need. As soon as I heard of
the ZIP drive, I bought Iomega stock. I promised myself I'd hold
until (a) I had enough money to make a big difference in my life
(b) I saw signs of slowing demand, and/or Jaz wasn't taking
off.
sold 95% after (a), rode the rest until I saw (b) happen.
Remember; Zip is it, Zip is it, Zip is it... Any of you who are holding
the stock waiting for some 'magic' product to come out of the
woodwork should sell. Zip will make or break the company. THE
LOW END IS WHERE THE ACTION IS!!! I just hope margins will hold
up. By the way, (for those who don't know) KE is NOT God! Don't
follow him blindly. Look at the numbers for yourself, ignore
Jaz, Ditto revenues/earnings.. You'll see what I'm talking
about. In fact, I'll post an analysis when I have some time.
kp
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