Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: FundAce who wrote (9790)	3/21/1997 5:00:00 PM
From: BP Ritchie	of 42771

Oracle, NetScape ... news is good to see. Buyout, I hope not though. The deal with NetScape to set up a separate company is probably the best way to leverage existing technology into saleable products fast. A very good move! ... If Joe Marengi did it, then I want him to stay and do more deals like this ... if he delayed it, then I'm not so keen on keeping him around ... we'll probably find out fairly soon. It shouldn't have taken 6 months to arrange ... more like 1 month. On the deal with Oracle ... I don't know how they're going to arrange the details, but I expect it will have the same effect as the deal with NetScape. NetScape's WebServer and Oracle's Relational DB are both excellent examples of Server applications that do create more demand for Servers ... I'm happy to see them moving to Novell's Platform. There are more opportunities like this to be pursued ... Data Propagation is one that I'm trying to figure out for myself right now. A platform to run 'agents' coded as Java Scripts (deal with Sun?) is another logical opportunity ... it looks like it's in the works too. All of the guys running these companies have probably been able to see these opportunities for well over a year ... apparently didn't have the confidence in Novell to make the commitments needed until the last few days ... or maybe they were expecting to do it with MicroSoft after Novell was buried. These news items look a lot like a vote of confidence in Novell ... as well as an alliance to outflank MicroSoft. Although it looks good right now ... the detail technical work still lies ahead ... and there will be some 'revenue politics' to deal with in a few more months, lets hope our management 'situation' is resolved before they have to deal with that one ... don't want to win the server wars, only to put more money in Oracle's bank account. I'm encouraged by what's in the press ... haven't seen enough change in how they sell and support in the marketplace yet to think that we can relax and feel good about what's been done ... don't forget the experience that Paul reported ... a few changes at the top won't fix that ... I'm still not seeing the response from the lower level managers that makes me feel like the problem's solved yet ... I'm hoping they get 'religion' at Brainshare. Still plugging away at making this into a great company & investment, it's going to take a little while longer yet. A buyout will just give us some 'instant gratification' that in the long run won't be very satisfying ... I'd rather see Novell viewed as the dominant NOS vendor again ... then we can get the premiuns that NetScape & MicroSoft get now ... and on a much larger Revenue base too! I'd rather have $75 per share in 2 or 3 years than $20 share in a few months. I'm not as worried about the value going below $8 anymore, but I was just last week ... I'm very happy about that change in outlook.

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