My theory re: the shutdown at AXC from Friday to January 6th....
I think it's their final move-out and move-in from and to their facilities in Redwood City, CA. They're evacuating one part of the campus and moving into another part. I guess they're shutting down normal operations to absolutely complete the move as swiftly as possible. Course, it's just my wishful thinking putting the best light on the subject, but it makes the most sense to me. Can't imagine they're sending all those hard nosed, greedy KM negotiators home tho too for the holidays! Imagine top brass gets to stay and oversee, while the peons get to take a holiday while their new digs are getting fixed up. Now if they could also at the same time fix their news release machine...
In regards to Karen Schweiker(sp?), AXC's IR, response that KM would "significantly change their revenue outlook", the numbers tantalizing me are what if they capture the lions' share of the disk drive market, and charge, say $5 per KM layer? Multiply 150M disks x $5(or whatever you deem best for a guestimate figure)= $750M extra to add to the $100M in current revenues for $850M in revenues potentially in 98 or 99, the first couple year it's possible to have a full year of KM production. Of course, this is best case scenario I imagine, but putting a reasonable price to sales multiple on $850M can give me a stock price that puts me about in retirement, boys! Price well above $30 I'd guess. Even $100 a share would be $5Billion market cap, and that would just be big enough for the largest mutual funds. Look at Cisco, with sales in the single digits of billions, with a market cap up to $30-$50B at times. Hmmm.... In the meantime, not to be mean, but I think time will drift the price lower from here as people get impatient re: a KM announcement.
Also think the previous poster who speculated about AXC's being a lonely "must have" growth stock next year is right on the (our) money! Can't see why AXC can't really break out into a big new growth stock with increasing analyst coverage, buy recommendations starting, and price appreciation gathering steam as the big guys roll in with millions of dollars looking for (now) overpriced merchandise. |
