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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: ptanner who wrote (98517)3/15/2000 7:53:00 AM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (3) of 1581411
 
Re: Sorry about hammering on the $1B profit projection..

Quite all right. The flip side, of course, is the chance for a major problem at Dresden leaving AMD capped at 1GHZ or so when Willamette comes out. (and leaving revenues where they are now, but expenses higher).

But there have been too many on-the-record comments from AMD that their copper process yields are better than expected for that to seem probable.

Perhaps Intel is playing some weird misdirection game, but the volumes indicated for 1GHZ PIII appear consistent with the parts being pilot production for their new stepping (similar to when AMD was shipping K6-3s from its development FAB) and those parts are not functional unless cooled below standard operating temperatures.

The link that crazyoldman has pointed us to several times: (crazyoldman - thanks for that inspiring link!)
mist.co.uk
seems to indicate that standard Athlon production parts, binned at lower speeds, often run without problems at 1GHZ at standard temperatures. I think that AMD has a good chance at gaining a small but significant chunk of the high end business market, and may well dominate the SOHO/consumer high end market for Q4. AMD ASPs may not quite equal Intel's, but I expect they will likely be much closer than in the past.

Whatever happens, it will be fascinating to see how it all turns out.

Regards,

Dan
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