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Strategies & Market Trends : Canadian Options
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To: Barron Von Hymen who wrote (24)2/1/1997 3:16:00 PM
From: Goldberry   of 1598
 
Just got back from a vacation so am replying late.

I am not going to get into statistics because that
is a fools game. Most predictions never are correct
and quite often are way out to lunch. I base my
prediction on what I perceive to be trends and what
these trends will create.

I believe wages in the U.S to be moving up
quickly and with unemployment getting lower
this will accellerate the wage gains. Unions
have been stymied in their quest for higher
salaries for past 5 years in Canadaa and U.S.
with the profits being shown by the corporations
look for them to start demanding more.

Because I tend to follow the Eurobond market
the closest I will give you some figures from
the International Securities Market Assoc.
(I look at this because I found that as a Banker
for some 25 years the Euro market seemed to
best predict upward movements in Canadian bond
rates, probably because so much of our debt
is bought off shore)

As at Jan 10/97
Current yield (all bonds) 6.75% * They publish 1-5 yrs and over 5 yrs
Change on week 0.17% but change is not significant
Change on month 0.39%
Change on year -0.82%
12 month high 8.06%
12 month low 6.04%

Don't get me wrong I don't forsee a major jump in
rates this year but about .5 to 1% on prime. I think
this will create a bit of panic in the interest
sensitive stocks when it happens or is perceived to
be happening. The real wild card in my opinion is
the Quebec situation which is on the back burner but
eventually will raise its head again.

Just my opinion, your welcome to yours.

Graham
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