Niles, who works for BankBoston I think, is one of the very few analyst that I respect.
He very clearly explained why DELL was at the end of its run up when few others did. More importantly, he explained in great detail what DELL would report (in dollars) and why - before they reported. He was right on the money. All this was in big contradiction to the streets earnings estimates. I got out and saved a bundle.
I saw his short report on CNBC (they never give the people that have depth any time) and it made a lot of sense.
Let's face it, it is earnings time and fund managers are taking profits so we can bring down the PEs across the board. They also took this opportunity to put money into the DOW which stabilizes things a lot. Remember it is the big DOW businesses that buy a lot of the NASDAQ businesses equipment.
Then, when earnings start, they start selling DOW and buying back up all the good NASDAQ stocks until next earnings month. The NASDAQ stocks that never should have been run up to start with get left behind (witness the LINUX guys in January - everybody now down by 50-60% YTD).
So the question is who going to get bought back up? In other words, who is growing fast, making a profit and will continue to do so for the rest of the year?
IMHO, SNDK is one.
Broadband semis are others (JDSU, QCOM, PMCS, AMCC, etc.)
Satellites too (DISH and GMH). |
